EuroLeague playoff chances: The most likely scenarios and outcomes / News - Basketnews.com

The battle for the eighth spot features three teams. It's most likely that the eighth team will have 19 wins.

Credit: zalgiris.lt Credit zalgiris.lt

With just one game remaining in the EuroLeague, the playoffs picture is starting to take shape. Three teams still have chances to take a coveted spot in the postseason that would guarantee at least three more games in the 2022-23 EuroLeague campaign.

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Twitter user @lostgps has calculated each team's chances of both making it into the postseason and the probability of reaching a certain place in the final standings.

The calculations were done using the team's Elo rating, which is basically a number of the team's relative strength. Through 50,000 simulations of the remaining matchups, playoff percentages were calculated.

Six playoff teams are clear. Besides Olympiacos Piraeus, FC Barcelona, Real Madrid, and AS Monaco, Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgradeand Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv joined the playoff crew after Round 33 wins.

Further on,Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul have a large chance (92%) of going to the playoffs since they are one win ahead of Baskonia and Zalgiris. On top of that, Fenerbahce are scheduled to play the last game against Crvena Zvezda, who are out of the playoff race.

Cazoo Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz hold a 60% probability to make the postseason appearance due to their head-to-head advantage over Zalgiris. The Basques have everything in their hands, however, they play league-leading Olympiacos at the Peace and Friendship Stadium on the final matchday.

Zalgiris Kaunas carry a 48% chance of going to the playoffs. However, the biggest possibility is that the Lithuanian team will finish the season 9th in the final standings.

On top of the playoff chances simulation, the user also calculated the most likely amount of victories that the teams will need to get to the playoffs.

The most likely outcome (51%) is that the 8th-seeded team will have 19 wins and will clinch its spot without ties.

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