Four reasons why Olympiacos vs. Fenerbahce will be a fascinating series / News - Basketnews.com

Olympiacos and Fenerbahce enter the playoff battle from diametrically opposed positions, but tables can be easily turned in a pairing featuring stacked rosters and experienced coaches.

Credit: Panagiotis Moschandreou/Euroleague Basketball via Getty Images; Imago-Scanpix Credit Panagiotis Moschandreou/Euroleague Basketball via Getty Images; Imago-Scanpix

Olympiacos Piraeus enter the EuroLeague playoffs for the 23rd time in the last 31 years, with the view to making their 12th Final Four. However, the Reds will go up against Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul, who reached five straight Final Fours from 2015 until 2019 and only one playoff presence ever since.

After countless scenarios and Fenerbahce's decline in the regular season (six losses in nine games), a rather unlikely matchup was eventually made possible. Olympiacos have the pole position and the home-court advantage as the team that finished atop of the standings, while the Turkish champs enter the race from the 8th and final spot.

Even though in most matchups involving the No.1 and the No.8 seeds, there's a clear favorite to make the Final Four, things are far more complicated in this clash.

Despite the Reds racking up a historic 24-10 record, the team coached by Dimitris Itoudis seems perfectly capable of giving the Greeks a run for their money.

Let's take a look at the reasons that can render this playoff pairing as exciting and intriguing as any of the other three.

Regular season can be deceiving

Plain and simple, just by looking at the outcome of the regular season fixtures, Fenerbahce seem to be no match for Olympiacos.

The Reds recorded two impressive blowouts, beating their opponents by a total margin of 47 points. A 94-67 win in Piraeus on December 13, 2022, was succeeded by a staggering 93-73 hammering in Istanbul six weeks later.

For the casual fan, those games show a clear superiority of one team over the other. For 80 minutes, Olympiacos were able to expose all of Fenerbahce's weaknesses and get the best out of their own astronomical shooting percentages. But players don't think the same as fans.

"Playoffs are different games," Kostas Sloukas told BasketNews after his team beat Baskonia in the regular season finale.

"There is a rapid change of emotions, anxiety, and pressure. Last year, we played a very difficult series against Monaco, even though we were 2nd and they were 7th," the Greek guard warned.

If Fenerbahce had some serious absences (Johnathan Motley, Scottie Wilbekin) in the first game, Olympiacos neatly overcame Kostas Sloukas' lack of availability in the second outing.

For the record, AS Monaco was the team that had the fewest absences per match (0.32) and played 23 times on a full roster.

Olympiacos were second (0.41) and presented a full lineup in 23 games, while Fenerbahce came in 15th with 2.74 absentees per contest. The Turkish side played only three times with a full roster.

Currently, Wilbekin and Devin Booker are expected to be sidelined for a few more days, meaning they might miss the first two games of the series starting on April 24.

Does this make Olympiacos' work any easier? Probably, but Fenerbahce have the depth to respond. The fact that the Turks dispose of almost double as much budget as their opponents speak volumes.

A similar approach with different results

The two teams are playing at exactly the same pace (70 possessions per game), but Olympiacos score 120.1 points per 100 possessions versus Fenerbahce's 119.1.

However, the main difference is shown by the defensive indicators. Olympiacos is the best defense in the EuroLeague with 108.4 points per 100 possessions, while Fener's tally reaches 115.1 (9th overall).

Olympiacos were the most successful team in the Euroleague (62.2% in true shooting), with Fener not doing badly in this area, being in 6th place.

The big difference distinguishing Olympiacos from all other teams in the competition is the assisted field goals, i.e., the percentage of baskets they make off assists.

The way Olympiacos play have brought the Greek side to 72.4%, which also explains why they have the most efficient offense.

Olympiacos are also a team that fights for every possession. Fenerbahce may prevail in terms of numbers with 28.5% ORB%, while the "Reds" count 26.2% respectively.

Fener have players who like individual actions. That's why they are in 10th place in assisted field goals.

They are also very poor (15th) in defensive rebounding since they only secure 67.7% of the available defensive boards. On the contrary, players like Motley and Booker are very athletic and avid offensive rebounders.

Olympiacos rely a lot on good and fast ball movement from the strong to the weak side in order to create a defensive imbalance, free spot shots, or attack against the close-out defense.

Apart from shooting the ball, Giorgos Bartzokas' players are also capable in pick-and-roll situations, with Sloukas and Thomas Walkup as the ball handlers.

In addition, they score almost 10 points per game from cuts, with Sasha Vezenkov and Kostas Papanikolaou excelling in that department.

Fener, on the other hand, rely heavily on pick and roll, with Nick Calathes, Marko Guduric, and Wilbekin as the main exponents.

The Greek guard is the main creator, the Serbian guard-forward is both a creator and a scorer, while Wilbekin mainly uses screens to create his own shot.

Fenerbahce is a team that tries to run, explores early offense (in the first 8 seconds of each possession), and with big men who can run the court.

One-on-one situations are also an important part of the offensive scheme, with Guduric, Wilbekin, and Carsen Edwards capable of creating their shots.

It's all Greek to them

As if the presence of Dimitris Itoudis (and his assistant, Stefanos Dedas) wasn't enough, Fenerbahce added three Greek players over the course of some months.

First came Calathes, who was a free agent after leaving FC Barcelona. Then Kostas Antetokounmpo and Tyler Dorsey followed, both coming off unsuccessful attempts to establish themselves in the NBA.

Without any doubt, one of the things one can look forward to is Dorsey's return to Piraeus. The Greek-American guard has averaged 7.9 points (42.1% on 2-pointers, 36.4% on 3-pointers, 73.3% on free throws), 0.8 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per 20 minutes in eight games with Fenerbahce, and it's clear he has yet to adjust to his new team.

It's uncertain whether that will happen at this stage of the season and with Olympiacos perfectly aware of the player's drawbacks. Under the circumstances, one can probably expect Dorsey to hold a limited role.

When Fenerbahce signed him, Itoudis had many options in his backcourt, even if Melih Mahmutoglu hasn't played much this season.

In fact, Dorsey's signing proved to be a lifesaver since shortly after came the serious injury of Wilbekin. The two of them also co-existed in rotation in only three matches, something that is expected to happen again in the duels with Olympiacos.

From the moment Dorsey moved to Istanbul, Edwards' playing time was very quickly reduced.

Similarly, Motley's injury towards the end of 2022, combined with the surgery that Tonye Jekiri was forced to have, brought Antetokounmpo to Istanbul.

However, the consistent contribution from Nigel Hayes-Davis and Motley's dynamic comeback to his early high standards (in a season where his stock has skyrocketed) has somewhat marginalized the Greek big man.

Of course, despite his many ups and downs, Calathes remains the starting point guard.

The 34-year-old averages 8.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 1.1 steals in 26 minutes. In his case, the motivation to make his only second Final Four since he came back to Europe and Panathinaikos in 2015 can be a real difference-maker.

The coaching battle

Largely regarded as the two best Greek coaches right now, Giorgos Bartzokas and Dimitris Itoudis can guarantee the matchup will be influenced by their decisions to the same extent as it will be decided by their players.

Giorgos Bartzokas knows that his team has repeatedly come close to perfection and that pulling off three more high-level performances will lead Olympiacos to Kaunas.

Olympiacos chose to drop their pace as the regular season was drawing to a close, but now it's time to turn the engines back on.

Olympiacos' pressure on the ball and defensive behavior will decide a lot in these matches. At the same time, some of their players -especially those considered for individual accolades, like Vezenkov, Sloukas, and Walkup, are expected to come forward.

It has been a mixed blessing that Olympiacos have stayed unscathed from the fact that several of their newcomers haven't performed up to par.

Isaiah Canaan was backed up by Giannoulis Larentzakis, whose role got upgraded; Alec Peters saw Vezenkov turn into the league MVP; Joel Bolomboy, initially intended to be Moustapha Fall's backup, was benched for the sake of Tarik Black's hustle.

Without Dorsey, the team's philosophy changed, and the ball movement improved, but the off-ball motion took off.

Vezenkov showed how a player can be over-efficient without dribbling, but everything we saw this year had worked since the autumn of 2021.

Early in the 2021-22 season, Bartzokas had defined the roles, Olympiacos reached the Final Four, and from then on, everything became easier in terms of trust, understanding, and belief in the common goal.

The players knew what their coach was asking for, understood that his philosophy was bearing fruit, and were convinced that - sometimes - the role players could become the leading men and vice-versa.

On the other hand, Itoudis knows very well how to prepare his team mentally ahead of games like that. His players, especially those who have won titles, saw their egos suffer a huge blow in the regular season and will be willing to redeem themselves.

Under Itoudis, Fenerbahce started the season in high gear in all competitions. Especially in the EuroLeague, the Turkish side won 9 out of their first 10 matches in a start befit of a trophy contender. Over that span, Fener used to dominate in the third quarter.

That was one of Itoudis' trademarks when he was still coaching CSKA Moscow. In the 2020-21 season, the Russians finished the third quarter ahead in 25 of the 34 games of the regular season. CSKA finished the campaign in 2nd place with 24 wins that year.

The biggest advantage of the 52-year-old tactician at Fenerbahce is that he mostly formed the squad himself. The two coaches who preceded him (Igor Kokoshkov and Sasa Djordjevic) did not have that chance.

Conclusion

This series is in no way a typical 1-seed vs. 8-seed matchup, despite Olympiacos' two easy wins in the regular season. In the end, one crucial detail in the (hi)story of regular season winners not lifting the trophy is that all of them have survived the playoff test.

Olympiacos have every reason to believe that this season, they will be able to make an exception regarding the first part.

As for the second, Fenerbahce will try to raise their objections. Let's see what the verdict will look like.

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