Olympiacos win against Monaco is not a given: 5 keys that will decide the game / News - Basketnews.com

There are 5 distinct keys that will decide the winner of the EuroLeague semifinal between Monaco and Olympiacos. Slowing down Mike James and Kostas Sloukas, the matchup of the centers, defensive risks, and intangibles will be a deciding factor in the game.

The semifinal between AS Monaco and Olympiacos Piraeus will be their 10th meeting since the beginning of last season, so there's plenty of footage to go through to understand what we can expect to see on Friday.

Since it's a single-elimination game, a lot depends on which team will have a better shooting night.

Making shots against Monaco isn't that hard. Opposing teams have one of the best true shooting percentages against them.

They are the team that allows opponents to shoot the most threes with the highest success rate. Despite that, they have the #10 best defensive rating this season, and Olympiacos shouldn't expect things to go smoothly.

Monaco will try implementing several tactics that were successful for Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul and coach Dimitris Itoudis during the last quarterfinal series against the Greek team.

Walkup and McKissic's shooting performance

Monaco will allow Thomas Walkup and Shaquielle McKissic to shoot, they will go under the ball screens and will ignore the duo on catch-and-shoot opportunities. Walkup's ability to fight against it will be the first question heading into the matchup after he struggled against Fenerbahce last week.

Helping from non-shooters is Monaco's way of trying to slow down Kostas Sloukas' pick-and-rolls. To be more precise, his Spain pick-and-rolls.

That's the most successful play from the entire playbook of head coach Georgios Bartzokas. Games 3 and 5 against Fenerbahce were won, executing it at the highest level. It was also the final dagger in last year's Game 5 against Monaco.

Monaco's approach to it is clear - they don't switch guard to guard, which is the most usual way of defending it. Instead, they put their bigs at the level of the screens with guards following over.

McKissic's shots from the outside sit well with Monaco. They cover the passing lanes pretty well. In case the defender gets beaten, they often peel the switch to avoid obvious disadvantages. They are physical, relentless, and know where to risk.

Slowing down Kostas Sloukas

Alpha Diallo's defense could be the key to the entire matchup. When on the court, he will probably deny Sloukas from easily receiving the ball and force the main engine of Olympiacos to work extra hard.

Not only Monaco are helping on drives and closeouts in the paint, but they also want to influence Sloukas to his weaker right hand, where he is more likely to pass out.

However, if nobody is ready to help, Sloukas is ready to lob it up. On other occasions, he tries to manipulate by going left and using the re-screen as an option to free himself up.

When locked in, Monaco are great at flying around the court. They might allow the most threes, but they also force the most turnovers.

John Brown III will be the guy making sure Sasha Vezenkov doesn't get anything free. His active hands will be crucial on the Bulgarian's backdoor cuts, a signature of the Olympiacos offense.

Moustapha Fall vs. Donatas Motiejunas

Moving away from the perimeter, the matchup between Moustapha Fall and Donatas Motiejunas could have an important role in this semifinal. Bartzokas loved to attack through the center early in games last season, with D-Mo having trouble containing the Frenchman.

The Lithuanian will need to work hard to front the post, but that will create opportunities for the Olympiacos' non-shooters to attack the closeout.

On the flip side, Motiejunas is the lone post-scorer for Monaco, who provided a great balance for them in the Maccabi series.

However, against the Greeks, his averages drop significantly. Olympiacos rarely switch with Fall, so he doesn't have an advantage that way.

Additionally, Fall is too strong for Motiejunas to go ISO-ball in the post. Monaco could try to use his pick-and-pops, but it shouldn't significantly impact the game.

Stopping Mike James

Stopping Mike James is the #1 priority for Bartzokas. It should begin by making the star guard work on the defensive end. Based on the previous matchups, James will start the game defending Isaiah Canaan, which is a sign for Olympiacos to run more off-ball sets for him.

James was great in the quarterfinal series in fighting through off-ball screens. However, he usually tries to cut these pindowns or staggers, opening up potential possibilities for Olympiacos.

Him being late can result in open threes not only for his primary defenders but also for the likes of Sasha Vezenkov as well.

The weak link in the Greeks' defense is Sloukas, so prepare to see him and Vezenkov being attacked again.

If James gets the matchup he wants, he's going to see a defensive wall. The tricky part is that he wasn't as used to it in January as he is right now. After the Maccabi series, he will be much more ready physically to handle the contact, and his teammates will be more prepared to react in these situations.

Sometimes, it's Mike against himself, as the opponents can simply watch and pray his circus shots don't go in.

On other occasions, Monaco will need to find cutters on his drives. Monaco commit the least turnovers in the league and will need to keep it up in order to advance.

Intangibles and extra tactics

John Brown's offensive role is unique. Since everybody ignores him basically anywhere, the forward simply tries to force communication errors and catch the enemy off-guard.

At the same time, stunting from Jordan Loyd is not a good idea. His fantastic performances coincided with Monaco's wins in the quarterfinals, while his confidence in shooting the ball was on full display. The flares from Brown allow him to get clean looks toward the basket.

With Fall as their main center, Olympiacos also play a lot of drop coverage. It's a really interesting thing to follow: who will get the upper hand here?

Monaco definitely has a talented enough backcourt to take advantage of this scenario. At the same time, Bartzokas has great screen navigators, with Canaan and Walkup glued to their matchups after the pick or even able to cancel the screens by fighting over them.

Last but definitely not least - second chance points. This could be huge both ways. Olympiacos are 2nd-best in finishing the defensive plays right - getting that board to secure the stop.

Monaco are #1 in offensive rebounds with more than 12 per game. Second-chance points and loose balls are always huge in single-elimination games. However, that could come back to bite Monaco as their court balance going for those rebounds is close to non-existent.

If Monaco keep this a close game until the end, they have a better shot at winning this semifinal.

Can others not-named James, Okobo, and Loyd make enough shots to help these three arrive there, or is it going to be Olympiacos' non-shooters stepping up just like they did last year in Game 5? We'll find out on Friday.

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