Power Rankings, Week 18: Celtics lead, Wolves surge after All-Star weekend

Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Celtics remain on top after All-Star weekend.

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A year ago, the Denver Nuggets came out of the All-Star break with a four-game lead in the loss column atop the Western Conference. They still had some work to do, but that was a nice cushion with which they were operating.

This year, the defending champs come out of the break three games in the loss column behind the first-place Minnesota Timberwolves, with two other teams in their way, and having lost three straight games.

Denver isn’t the only contender that should have a sense of urgency as the season restarts on Thursday. The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-7 under coach Doc Rivers and are in danger of slipping out of the top four in the Eastern Conference. The Philadelphia 76ers, no matter when they’re getting Joel Embiid back, need to find their footing. And the Phoenix Suns need to put their foot on the gas as soon as possible.

Further down the standings, teams like the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat need to make a push if they’re going to give themselves a chance to replicate last year’s postseason success.

As we come out of the break, the season is exactly two-thirds complete, with 820 of 1,230 games in the books. Given how many teams need to get back on the right track, we should have some great basketball ahead of us.

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Plus-Minus Players of the Week

Right Way: Anthony Edwards (MIN) was a plus-70 in three games last week.Wrong Way: Nic Claxton (BKN) was a minus-47 in two games last week.

Teams of the Week

Make It Last Forever: Minnesota (3-0) — The league’s only 3-0 Week 16 included a 21-point road win over the Clippers.Something Just Ain’t Right: Atlanta (0-2) — Double-digit losses to the Bulls and Hornets are not a good way to go into the break.

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East vs. West

The West is 167-127 (.568) against the East in interconference games after going 8-1 last week.

Schedule strength through Week 17

Toughest: 1. Golden State, 2. Memphis, 3. PortlandEasiest: 1. Phoenix, 2. Philadelphia, 3. ClevelandSchedule strength is based on cumulative opponent record, and adjusted for home vs. away and days of rest before a game.

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Movement in the Rankings

High jumps of the week: Minnesota (+3), Five teams (+2)Free falls of the week: Five teams (-2)

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Week 18 Team to Watch

Golden State — The Warriors have won six of their last seven games and they can’t afford to slow down. They come out of the break with a three-game homestand, hosting the Lakers (with whom they’re tied in the loss column) on Thursday (10 p.m. ET, TNT), the Hornets on Friday and the Nuggets on Sunday.

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Previously…

Last week: Celtics on top, Cavs enter Top 5 before All-Star breakThe archive: NBA.com Power Rankings

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OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (League Rank)DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (League Rank)NetRtg: Point differential per 100 possessions (League Rank)Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes (League Rank)

The league has averaged 115.2 points scored per 100 possessions and 99.7 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes this season.

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NBA.com’s Power Rankings, released every Monday during the season, are just one man’s opinion. If you have an issue with the rankings, or have a question or comment for John Schuhmann, send him an e-mail or contact him via threads.

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#1Boston CelticsLast Week:1

Record: 43-12

OffRtg: 120.8 (1) DefRtg: 110.5 (3) NetRtg: +10.3 (1) Pace: 99.0 (19)

The Celtics went into the break with five straight wins, with two of those by 40 and 50 points. They’re looking good for finishing with the league’s best record for the first time since they won the championship in 2007-08, currently leading the Wolves by four games.

Three numbers to know

The Celtics have passed the Pacers in offensive efficiency (giving them the most efficient offense in NBA history) and rank in the top three on both ends of the floor for the second straight season. They’d be just the fourth team to rank in the top three on both ends in the 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, with last season’s Celtics being the only one of the previous three that didn’t go on to win the championship.They rank fifth in field goal percentage in the paint (60.4%), but last in the percentage of their shots that have come in the paint (42%). They lead the league in 3-point rate (47.3%) by a wide margin and have the league’s best record, both when they’ve shot the league average or better from 3-point range (26-2) and when they haven’t (17-10).They’re the only team that ranks in the top five in both opponent field goal percentage in the paint (54.3%, third) and the (lowest) percentage of their opponents’ shots that have come in the paint (47%, fourth).

The Celtics have the league’s third easiest post-break schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage (.463). But it’s a road-heavy slate (15 of 27 on the road) with big games in New York and Cleveland in their first 12 days back.

Week 18: @ CHI, @ NYK

#2Minnesota TimberwolvesLast Week:5↑

Record: 39-16

OffRtg: 115.2 (17) DefRtg: 108.2 (1) NetRtg: +7.0 (3) Pace: 98.2 (26)

The Wolves might have had the league’s strongest close to the pre-break schedule, going into All-Star with four straight road wins, including two by more than 20 points over the Bucks and Clippers.

Three numbers to know

The Wolves have allowed 2.1 fewer points per 100 possessions than any other team. That would be the fourth biggest differential between the top-ranked and second-ranked defense in the 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.They have the best record (23-11) in games played between the 18 teams that are currently over .500 and the best record (11-7) in games played between the top eight teams in the West.They’ve been the league’s most improved rebounding team, grabbing 51.6% of available rebounds (sixth), up from 48.5% (27th) last season. The larger improvement has been on the defensive glass.

The Wolves have the league’s most home-heavy remaining schedule, with 17 of their 27 games at the Target Center. They begin their post-break schedule with their longest homestand of the season (seven games over 11 days), though it includes three rest-disadvantage games, the first coming Saturday against Brooklyn.

Week 18: vs. MIL, vs. BKN

#3LA ClippersLast Week:2↓

Record: 36-17

OffRtg: 119.7 (3) DefRtg: 114.3 (13) NetRtg: +5.4 (5) Pace: 98.5 (22)

The Clippers’ last four games before the break were not great. They suffered a wire-to-wire defeat (at home) to the Pelicans, barely beat the Pistons, got clobbered by Minnesota, and were down 14 in the fourth quarter at Golden State on Wednesday. But (without Kawhi Leonard) they came back to beat the Warriors and stay within a game in the loss column of the first-place Wolves.

Three numbers to know

Since losing their first five games with James Harden, the Clippers are 33-10, with the league’s No. 1 offense (121.3 points scored per 100 possessions).Since his arrival, the Clippers have been 18.5 points per 100 possessions better with Harden on the floor (plus 10.1) than they’ve been with him off the floor (minus 8.4). That’s the biggest on-off differential among 240 players who’ve played at least 750 minutes for a single team.They rank last in both ball movement (286 passes per 24 minutes of possession) and player movement (10.7 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possession), according to Second Spectrum tracking. They also rank last in both the percentage of their 3-point attempts that have come off the catch (62%) and the percentage that have been wide open (42%).

The Clippers are one of three teams with a league-high 29 games left to play, one of four with a league-high seven back-to-backs, and one of two with two remaining sets of five games in seven days. The first of the seven back-to-backs is Thursday and Friday, with the first game (in Oklahoma City) being one of the biggest games left on the NBA schedule.

Week 18: @ OKC, @ MEM, vs. SAC

#4Cleveland CavaliersLast Week:3↓

Record: 36-17

OffRtg: 116.2 (15) DefRtg: 110.3 (2) NetRtg: +5.8 (4) Pace: 98.6 (21)

The Cavs’ eight-game winning streak came to an end last Monday with a loss to the Sixers, their worst defensive performance (123 points allowed on 96 possessions) since Christmas. But they went into the break with a win, are 18-2 since early January, and have a four-game lead in the loss column for second place in the East.

Three numbers to know

The Cavs have had the best defense against the league’s top-10 offenses, allowing just 111.3 points per 100 possessions as they’ve gone 10-10 against that group.They have the league’s best road record (17-8), having won six straight away from Cleveland.They’ve seen the league’s biggest jump in ball movement, from 296 passes per 24 minutes of possession (27th) last season to 339 per 24 (eighth) this season, according to Second Spectrum tracking.

The Cavs are one of three teams with 29 games remaining and they’ll have two stretches of five games in seven days in the first three weeks out of the break. The first begins with a visit from the Magic (a potential playoff preview) on Thursday, with the Cavs having won two of the first three meetings between two of the league’s top-five defenses.

Week 18: vs. ORL, @ PHI, @ WAS

#5Oklahoma City ThunderLast Week:6↑

Record: 37-17

OffRtg: 119.2 (4) DefRtg: 111.9 (4) NetRtg: +7.3 (2) Pace: 100.7 (10)

The Thunder went into the break with a good win in Orlando, having lost their previous three road games. They come out of the break right in the middle of the four-team race for the top seed in the West.

Three numbers to know

The Thunder are one of two teams that rank in the top five on both ends of the floor. They’re 15.3 points per 100 possessions better than they were two seasons ago (minus 8.0), which would be the best two-year improvement in the last 25 years.They lead the league in turnover differential, having averaged 3.1 fewer than their opponents.They would be the first team in the last five seasons to rank in the top two in field goal percentage (second), 3-point percentage (second) and free throw percentage (first). They lead the league in the percentage of their 3-point attempts (68%) that have been wide open.

The Thunder have the easiest remaining schedule (cumulative opponent winning percentage of .485) among the top nine teams in the Western Conference. They have just one game remaining within the top four in the West and it’s their first game out of the break a visit from the Clippers on Thursday. Gordon Hayward should be in the rotation, having not played since Dec. 26.

Week 18: vs. LAC, vs. WAS, @ HOU

#6Denver NuggetsLast Week:4↓

Record: 36-19

OffRtg: 117.1 (13) DefRtg: 113.7 (11) NetRtg: +3.3 (9) Pace: 97.4 (28)

The Nuggets needed the All-Star break, having scored just 99 points per 100 possessions as they lost their last three games.

Three numbers to know

This would be the first time in the last eight seasons that the Nuggets didn’t rank in the top seven offensively. They’ve scored 0.3 more points per 100 possessions than they did last season (116.8, fifth), but the league average has jumped by 1.2 per 100.Their starting lineup leads all five-man units in total minutes played (654) and minutes per game (20.4). It’s outscored opponents by 13.0 points per 100 possessions, the sixth-best mark among 27 lineups that have played at least 200 total minutes.The Nuggets have been 17.4 points per 100 possessions better with Nikola Jokic on the floor (plus-8.7) than they’ve been with him off the floor (minus-8.7). That’s smaller than his on-off differential last season (22.9 per 100), but still the second biggest among 240 players who’ve played at least 750 minutes for a single team.

Denver has a relatively easy and home-heavy post-break schedule and is one of four teams with only three back-to-backs left to play. The first two of those are in the first eight days back from the break, with the Nuggets in Portland for a rest-disadvantage game on Friday.

Week 18: vs. WAS, @ POR, @ GSW

#7Dallas MavericksLast Week:7

Record: 32-23

OffRtg: 117.5 (11) DefRtg: 116.2 (19) NetRtg: +1.3 (13) Pace: 100.9 (8)

The Mavs have won six straight games (the longest active streak in the West) and are just a game in the loss column behind the fifth-place Suns, who they’ll host on Thursday.

Three numbers to know

The Mavs have the league’s best clutch record, 17-6 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes. They’ve had the league’s second-best clutch offense (128 points scored per 100 possessions), with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving having combined to shoot 30-for-60 (50%) on clutch field goals, 11-for-23 (48%) on clutch 3-pointers and 29-for-33 (88%) on clutch free throws.They have the league’s biggest differential between their record when they’ve shot the league average or better from 3-point range (23-5, second best) and their record when they haven’t (9-18, 18th).They have the best record among the four teams — Charlotte, Memphis and Miami are the others — that don’t have a lineup that’s played at least 100 minutes together. Their three most-used lineups all include Grant Williams, who was traded at the deadline.

The Mavs have just 11 home games remaining, tied (with Brooklyn) for the fewest in the league. The biggest of the 11 is the first one, as it will determine the season series with Phoenix. The road team has won each of the first two meetings.

Week 18: vs. PHX, @ IND

#8Phoenix SunsLast Week:9↑

Record: 33-22

OffRtg: 117.8 (9) DefRtg: 114.5 (14) NetRtg: +3.3 (10) Pace: 99.3 (15)

Bradley Beal couldn’t get to the All-Star break in one piece, leaving the Suns’ game against the Kings on Tuesday with a hamstring injury. The Suns still went into the break with a pair of wins and are 14-4 (best in the West) since Jan. 11.

Three numbers to know

The Suns have outscored their opponents by 12.7 points per 100 possessions in 440 minutes with Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant on the floor together and are 14-8 when all three have been available. That includes a 9-5 mark against teams that currently have winning records.They rank last in shooting-opportunity differential, having averaged 3.7 fewer than their opponents. They’re the only team that ranks in the bottom five in both turnover differential (+1.9 per game, 28th) and offensive-rebound differential (minus-1.7 per game, 27th).They’ve been the league’s worst fourth-quarter team by a wide margin, having been outscored by 16.0 points per 100 possessions (no other team has been half as bad) in the final 12 minutes of regulation. The 102.9 points per 100 possessions they’ve scored in the fourth is the second-worst mark for any team in any quarter, ahead of only the Hornets’ 102.5 in the first.

The Suns have the league’s toughest remaining schedule concerning cumulative opponent winning percentage, with 19 of their 27 games against other teams that come out of the break with winning records. It’s also road-heavy, with only 12 of the 27 at the Footprint Center.

They begin their post-break slate with a huge game in Dallas that will determine the season series with a team they lead by just one game.

Week 18: @ DAL, @ HOU, vs. LAL

#9New Orleans PelicansLast Week:11↑

Record: 33-22

OffRtg: 117.2 (12) DefRtg: 112.7 (7) NetRtg: +4.4 (8) Pace: 99.3 (16)

The Pelicans took advantage of a relatively soft stretch of schedule leading into the break, winning six of their last seven games. They’re tied with the Suns for the final two guaranteed playoff spots in the West.

Three numbers to know

The Pelicans have been 12.6 points per 100 possessions better in the first halves of games (plus-10.7, second) than they’ve been in second halves (minus-1.9, 20th). That’s the league’s biggest half-to-half differential, and the Pels (0-13) are the only team that hasn’t won a game it trailed after the third quarter.Only 19 of their games, the fewest in the league, have been within five points in the last five minutes.They’re one of two teams — the Suns are the other — that rank in the top 10 in 3-point percentage (37.7%, eighth), but in the bottom 10 in 3-point rate (36.5%, 24th). They’re a league-best 17-1 when they’ve outscored their opponent from 3-point range, but those 18 games in which they’ve done so are tied for the third-fewest total in the league. (Only the Bulls and Lakers have outscored their opponent from 3-point range in fewer games.)

The Pels’ first five games out of the break are their only stretch of five games in seven days this season. They have the most interconference games remaining (16) and they’re currently 10-4 against the East, though they’ll be at a rest disadvantage when they host the Heat on Friday.

Week 18: vs. HOU, vs. MIA, vs. CHI

#10New York KnicksLast Week:8↓

Record: 33-22

OffRtg: 117.9 (8) DefRtg: 113.1 (9) NetRtg: +4.8 (6) Pace: 97.2 (29)

The Knicks won four of their first five games without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, but went into the break with a four-game losing streak, allowing 126 points per 100 possessions over the four games.

Three numbers to know

The Knicks have the league’s biggest differential between their record vs. the 12 teams currently below .500 (22-2, third best) and their record vs. the 18 teams currently above .500 (11-20, 18th). They have the worst record (6-12) in games played between the eight Eastern Conference teams currently over .500.They are just above average in both 3-point percentage and 3-point rate, but they lead the league with five players who’ve shot 40% or better on at least 100 3-point attempts.They’ve grabbed 53.1% of available rebounds, which would be the highest rebounding percentage for any team in the last seven seasons. They’re the only team that ranks in the top five in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, ranking second in both.

That 6-12 record within the top eight in the East includes a 0-3 mark against the Celtics, who will be at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. It seems unlikely that either Anunoby or Randle will be back, but a return from Isaiah Hartenstein (who missed the last three games before the break) would be helpful.

Week 18: @ PHI, vs. BOS

#11Milwaukee BucksLast Week:10↓

Record: 35-21

OffRtg: 118.9 (5) DefRtg: 115.9 (17) NetRtg: +3.1 (11) Pace: 102.0 (5)

The Bucks are just 3-7 with Doc Rivers and went into the break with a pretty brutal loss in Memphis.

Three numbers to know

The Bucks have allowed 5.0 more points per 100 possessions than they did last season (110.9, fourth), with only Charlotte (+5.6) having seen a bigger jump. They’ve allowed 49.5 points per 100 possessions (second most) on drives, up from 42.8 (14th fewest) last season, according to Second Spectrum.They’ve scored 4.6 more points per 100 possessions than they did last season (114.3, 15th). That’s the league’s fourth-biggest jump. They’ve seen the fifth-biggest jump in effective field goal percentage, its second-biggest jump in free throw rate, and its third-biggest drop in turnover rate.Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged 20.6 points in the paint per game, the most for any player in the last 24 seasons (since Shaquille O’Neal’s 22.5 ppg in 1999-00). As a team, the Bucks rank first in field goal percentage in the paint (62.1%), but 28th in the percentage of their shots that have come in the paint (44%), with that rate being just 36% for everybody but Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks have the East’s toughest remaining schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage (.534), with 18 of their 26 games against the other 17 teams that come out of the break with winning records. They’re 17-13 against the group, though just 4-8 on the road and 2-4 under Rivers.

Week 18: @ MIN, @ PHI

#12Sacramento KingsLast Week:12

Record: 31-23

OffRtg: 116.6 (14) DefRtg: 116.1 (18) NetRtg: +0.5 (17) Pace: 0.5 (17)

The Kings went 2-2, with both wins over the Nuggets, as they played their final four pre-break games against three of the top five teams in the West.

Three numbers to know

For the second straight season, the Kings are one of two teams — the Pacers have been the other both seasons — that rank in the top five in both ball movement (371 passes per 24 minutes of possession, first) and player movement (12.2 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possession, third), according to Second Spectrum tracking.They average 37.2 handoffs per 100 possessions, with no other team averaging more than 28.3 per 100, according to Second Spectrum tracking. The 1.05 points per chance they’ve scored on handoffs ranks second.They lead the league with six wins (they’re 6-18) in games they trailed by at least 15 points (no other team has more than four) and three wins (they’re 3-12) in games they led by at least 20.

Fifteen of the Kings’ last 19 games before the All-Star break were on the road and 17 of their 28 post-break games are at Golden 1 Center. But their first five games out of the break are just two single home games and three road games against three of the top four teams in the West. The first of those is in L.A. on Sunday.

Week 18: vs. SAS, @ LAC

#13Miami HeatLast Week:15↑

Record: 30-25

OffRtg: 113.3 (22) DefRtg: 113.0 (8) NetRtg: +0.3 (18) Pace: 97.5 (27)

The Heat followed up a seven-game losing streak by winning six of their final eight games before the break, picking up important wins in Milwaukee and Philadelphia last week.

Three numbers to know

The Heat rank in the top 10 defensively for what would be the fourth straight season and the 21st time in the 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data. They rank 19th in opponent effective field goal percentage, but are the only team that ranks in the top 10 in each of the other three factors on defense.The Heat rank 28th in the percentage of their road* field goal attempts that have come in the restricted area (25.7%). They rank second in the lowest percentage of their opponent’s field goal attempts (in road games) that have come in the restricted area (27.1%).Their most-used lineup has played just 79 minutes together, the second-fewest for any team’s most-used lineup, with the Grizzlies being the only team without a lineup that’s played that much. The Heat’s two most-used lineups (79 and 78 minutes) both include Kyle Lowry, who was traded on Jan. 23.

* Using only road games here to account for shot-charting discrepancies from arena to arena.

The Heat will play 10 of their first 14 games on the road, but they will have a rest advantage in three of the four games on the road trip that begins in New Orleans on Friday.

Week 18: @ NOP

#14Indiana PacersLast Week:13↓

Record: 31-25

OffRtg: 120.5 (2) DefRtg: 119.2 (26) NetRtg: +1.3 (14) Pace: 102.6 (2)

The Pacers were a little lucky to escape with a split of games in Charlotte and Toronto last week, with their two-point win over the Raptors keeping them in the top six in the Eastern Conference.

Three numbers to know

The Pacers have slipped out of the top spot in offensive efficiency, but are still putting up some historic numbers. Their effective field goal percentage (58.2%) would be the highest in NBA history and their assist/turnover ratio of 2.30 would be the highest in the 46 seasons for which turnovers have been counted.They’re the only team that ranks in the bottom five in more than one of the four factors on defense, ranking 26th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 28th in opponent free throw rate and 27th in defensive rebounding percentage.Among 232 players with at least 200 field goal attempts in each of the last two seasons, Jalen Smith (from 53% to 71.9%), Aaron Nesmith (from 52.5% to 65.1%) and Obi Toppin (from 54.8% to 65.3%) have seen the biggest, second biggest and fourth biggest jumps, respectively, in effective field goal percentage from 2022-23 to ’23-24.

Good news for the Pacers’ 26th-ranked defense: They’re tied (with the Warriors) for the fewest remaining games (five) against teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively. But they have two games in the first two weeks out of the break against the Mavs’ 11th-ranked offense, with the first of those in Indiana on Sunday.

Week 18: vs. DET, vs. DAL

#15Philadelphia 76ersLast Week:14↓

Record: 32-22

OffRtg: 118.6 (6) DefRtg: 114.1 (12) NetRtg: +4.5 (7) Pace: 99.5 (13)

With Joel Embiid out, the Sixers needed the All-Star break as much as any team. But they did get a great win in Cleveland last Monday, and they could have some more healthy bodies (including Kyle Lowry) when they restart the season on Thursday.

Three numbers to know

The Sixers are 26-8 with Embiid and 6-14 without him, with that latter mark being 6-10 when Tyrese Maxey has played. The bigger difference between the games with Embiid (110.9 points allowed per 100 possessions) and the games without him (119.5 allowed per 100) has been on defense.Their lineup of Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris, Nicolas Batum and Joel Embiid has outscored opponents by 34.0 points per 100 possessions, the best mark among 27 lineups that have played at least 200 minutes together. It has the best marks on both offense and defense among those 27 lineups, but it hasn’t played together since Dec. 18.They’re one of four teams – the Pistons, Magic and Raptors are the others – that rank in the bottom 10 in both 3-point percentage (35.9%, 22nd) and 3-point range (35.2%, 27th).

The Sixers are the only team that’s played less than half its games (26/54) against the 18 teams that come out of the break with winning records. They’ll play a league-high 19 of their final 28 games against that group, with their first four against the four teams ahead of them in the Eastern Conference. They’re 2-5 (1-4 with Embiid, 1-1 without him) against those four teams thus far.

Week 18: vs. NYK, vs. CLE, vs. MIL

#16Los Angeles LakersLast Week:16

Record: 30-26

OffRtg: 114.5 (18) DefRtg: 114.7 (15) NetRtg: -0.2 (19) Pace: 101.4 (6)

The Lakers remain in the bottom half of the Play-In Tournament group in the West, but are comfortably over .500, having won six of their last seven games, a stretch that includes victories over the Celtics, Knicks and Pelicans.

Three numbers to know

The Lakers are the only team with a winning record and a negative point differential, having been outscored by seven points over their 56 games. They have the fourth biggest differential between their record in clutch games (15-7, third best) and their record games that weren’t within five points in the last five minutes (15-19).They rank last in 3-point differential, having been outscored by 8.3 points per game from beyond the arc. But they rank second in restricted-area differential (+5.9) and lead the league in free throw differential (+4.1).LeBron James and Anthony Davis have played 1,198 minutes together, 311 more than they played last season (887) and 21 more than they played in the previous two seasons (’20-21 and ’21-22) combined. The Lakers have outscored their opponents by just 1.6 points per 100 possessions in those minutes, though that was just plus-0.6 per 100 through January and is plus-10.2 per 100 in 129 minutes this month.

This 6-1 stretch has come with a major uptick in offense, and the offense may need to stay hot, as the Lakers have the league’s toughest post-break schedule regarding opposing offenses. Three of their first four post-break games are against teams that rank in the top 10 offensively, with visits to the Warriors (seventh) and Suns (ninth) this week.

Week 18: @ GSW, vs. SAS, @ PHX

#17Orlando MagicLast Week:17

Record: 30-25

OffRtg: 113.0 (24) DefRtg: 112.0 (5) NetRtg: +1.0 (15) Pace: 98.2 (25)

The Magic had a rough January, but have won six of their last eight games and went into the break with their most efficient offensive performance of the season, scoring 118 points on just 86 possessions against the Knicks.

Three numbers to know

The Magic rank in the bottom 10 offensively for what would be the 12th straight season. They lead the league in free throw rate (29.8 attempts per 100 shots from the field), but rank 27th in free throw percentage (75.6%).They have the league’s biggest differential between their field goal percentage in the paint (58.5%, 11th) and their effective field goal percentage on shots from outside the paint (48.6%, 29th).The Magic’s everybody’s-healthy starting lineup has now played more minutes (259) than the lineup with Anthony Black and Goga Bitadze in place of Markelle Fultz and Wendell Carter Jr. (254). The two lineups have nearly identical numbers (bad offense, great defense) on both ends of the floor, and have outscored their opponents by 6.3 points per 100 possessions in those 513 total minutes.

The Magic have the league’s easiest remaining schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage (.435), with 16 of their 27 remaining games against the 12 teams that come out of the break with losing records (no other team has more than 13 games against the bottom 12). They’re 16-5 against that group thus far, though two of the five losses were to the Hawks, who they’ll visit (with a rest disadvantage) on Sunday.

Week 18: @ CLE, @ DET, @ ATL

#18Golden State WarriorsLast Week:18

Record: 27-26

OffRtg: 117.9 (7) DefRtg: 116.6 (20) NetRtg: +1.4 (12) Pace: 100.3 (12)

The Warriors could have gone into the All-Star break with a seven-game winning streak, but they blew a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead to the Clippers on Wednesday. They’re still back over .500.

Three numbers to know

The Warriors are the only team that ranks in the top five in both 3-point percentage (38.1%, fifth) and 3-point rate (43.3%, fifth), but have seen the biggest drop in the latter from last season (47.9%, third). They rank last in the percentage of their 3-point attempts that have come from the corners (17%).This would be the first season (not including 2019-20, when he played in only five games) where they’ve been better with Stephen Curry off the floor (plus-2.8 points per 100 possessions) than they’ve been with him on the floor (plus-0.3 per 100).They have the league’s second-biggest differential between their record vs. the 12 teams currently below .500 (16-3, fifth best) and their record vs. the 18 teams currently above .500 (11-23, 22nd). They had won four straight against the above-.500 group before the loss to the Clippers last week.

The Warriors have the easiest remaining schedule (cumulative opponent winning percentage of .471) among the top 12 teams in the West. They also have three games remaining against the ninth-place Lakers, with whom they’re tied in the loss column. The first of those is Thursday in San Francisco, where the Warriors are just 5-8 (with a loss to the Lakers) since Christmas.

Week 18: vs. LAL, vs. CHA, vs. DEN

#19Chicago BullsLast Week:21↑

Record: 26-29

OffRtg: 113.5 (21) DefRtg: 115.0 (16) NetRtg: -1.4 (20) Pace: 96.9 (20)

The Bulls have the East’s fourth best record (21-15) since late November, but their 5-14 start still has them far behind the eighth-place Magic. They did solidify their position as the best East team with a losing record with a win in Atlanta last week.

Three numbers to know

The Bulls have outscored their opponents from 3-point range in only 13 of their 55 games, the fewest in the league. On offense, they’re one of two teams — the Suns are the other — that rank in the bottom 10 in both the percentage of their shots that have come in the paint (46.7%, 26th) and the percentage that has come from 3-point range (36.6%, 23rd).On the other end of the floor, Chicago opponents have taken 45.2% of their shots from 3-point range, the league’s highest opponent rate. The Bulls rank 10th in opponent field goal percentage (47%), but 20th in opponent effective field goal percentage (55.3%).They’re the only team with more clutch wins (17-14 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes) than they had all of last season (15-23). They rank second in clutch defense, but also third in fourth-quarter offense (120.5 points scored per 100 possessions), with Ayo Dosunmu (66.8%), Coby White (63.8%) and Andre Drummond (63.1%) ranking fifth, 13th and 17th in fourth-quarter effective field goal attempts among 181 players with at least 75 fourth-quarter field goal attempts. Their 10 wins (they’re 10-27) in games they trailed by double-digits rank third.

The Hawks have won four of their last six games (after starting 8-21) against teams that are currently over. 500. Ten of their first 12 post-break games will be against that group, with the Celtics in Atlanta on Thursday.

Week 18: vs. BOS, @ NOP

#20Utah JazzLast Week:19↓

Record: 26-30

OffRtg: 115.8 (16) DefRtg: 118.8 (25) NetRtg: -3.0 (23) Pace: 100.8 (9)

The Jazz’s Play-In chances seem to be slipping away. The Lakers and Warriors are playing better and Utah went into the break with their first four-game losing streak since Thanksgiving.

Three numbers to know

The Jazz have been 14.9 points per 100 possessions better at home (plus-4.6, 14th) than they’ve been on the road (minus-10.3, 27th). That’s the league’s biggest home-road NetRtg differential.They’ve allowed 27.4 points per game in transition, which would be the highest mark in 20 seasons of Synergy tracking.They’re undefeated (19-0) when leading at halftime, with every other team having at least three losses in games they led at the half. But the Jazz have been the seventh-worst first-half team (minus-6.0 points per 100 possessions).

The Jazz are now four games in the loss column out of the Play-In group in the West, and they have the West’s third toughest post-break schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage (.522). But their first three games out of the break are three of their 10 remaining games against the other 11 teams that currently have losing records. They’re 13-5 against that group thus far.

Week 18: vs. CHA, vs. SAS

#21Houston RocketsLast Week:22↑

Record: 24-30

OffRtg: 113.2 (23) DefRtg: 112.7 (6) NetRtg: +0.5 (16) Pace: 99.1 (17)

The Rockets got a win over the Knicks last week, benefitting from an erroneous call that put Aaron Holiday at the line for the game-winning free throws. But their road woes continued and they’re one of two teams that went into the break with a loss in Memphis.

Three numbers to know

The Rockets are the only team with a losing record and a positive point differential, having outscored their opponents by 32 points over their 54 games.They’ve seen the league’s biggest drop in points allowed per 100 possessions, allowing 5.9 fewer than they did last season (118.6, 29th). With that and improvement on offense, they’ve also seen the biggest jump in point differential per 100 possessions (+8.6).They’re 19-9 at home and 5-21 on the road, with that being the league’s biggest home-road differential by a wide margin.

The Rockets have more road games (15) than home games (13) left to play, and they begin their post-break schedule with six games against three of the top six teams – the Pelicans, Suns (x 3) and Thunder (x 2) – in the Western Conference. They won six of their first eight games against that group, but have since lost four straight (all by double-digits).

Week 18: @ NOP, vs. PHX, vs. OKC

#22Atlanta HawksLast Week:20↓

Record: 24-31

OffRtg: 117.6 (10) DefRtg: 120.0 (29) NetRtg: -2.4 (22) Pace: 102.4 (3)

The Hawks were playing relatively well … until they lost to the Bulls and Hornets (by 23 points) last week.

Three numbers to know

The Hawks rank in the bottom 10 defensively for what would be the sixth time in the last seven seasons. They ranked 22nd last season and have still seen the third-biggest jump in points allowed per 100 possessions.They’ve seen the league’s biggest jump in 3-point rate (3PA/FGA), from 33.1% (30th) last season to 40.8% (10th) this season. Onyeka Okongwu (from 2.6% to 18.5%) and Trae Young (from 33.1% to 46.4%) have seen the sixth and 11th biggest jumps among 232 players with at least 200 field goal attempts in each of the last two seasons.They’ve taken part in four of the five highest-scoring games of the season (those in which the two teams have combined for more than 290 points), and are just 1-3 in those games.

Like their last three games before the break, four of the Hawks’ first five games after the break will be against teams that currently have losing records. The one exception is their game against Orlando on Sunday (when they’ll have a rest advantage).

Week 18: vs. TOR, vs. ORL

#23Brooklyn NetsLast Week:23

Record: 21-33

OffRtg: 114.5 (19) DefRtg: 116.8 (21) NetRtg: -2.3 (21) Pace: 98.4 (23)

The good news is that the Nets don’t have to play the Celtics again, having lost by 50 in Boston to close out their pre-break schedule. The bad news is that loss may have sparked the team to part ways with coach Jacque Vaughn on Monday.

Three numbers to know

The Nets have now played exactly 82 games since last year’s trade deadline and are 34-48 (fourth worst in the East) over that stretch. They had the conference’s fourth-best record (124-84, .596) over the two-plus seasons prior.They’re one of three teams that rank in the top 10 in both opponent field goal percentage in the paint (55.3%, fifth lowest) and the percentage of their opponent shots that have come in the paint (47%, seventh lowest). The other two are the Celtics and Thunder, who rank third and fourth defensively overall. The Nets rank 21st.They lead the league with 4.5 corner 3-pointers per game. Mikal Bridges’ 56 total corner 3s are tied for second among individuals.

The Nets had a lot of home games early on and will be paying for it over the last couple of months, with the league’s most road-heavy remaining schedule (17 of 28). They’re also tied (with the Kings) for the most rest-disadvantage games left to play (six).

But it’s the league’s second easiest remaining schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage (.460). They’re 12-7 against the other 11 teams that are currently below .500, a record that includes a home win over the Raptors, who they’ll play three more times.

Week 18: @ TOR, @ MIN

#24Toronto RaptorsLast Week:24

Record: 19-36

OffRtg: 113.8 (20) DefRtg: 117.6 (24) NetRtg: -3.8 (24) Pace: 99.4 (14)

Remember when the Raptors won three of their first four games with RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley? Since then, they’re 4-15, and they lost to the Spurs by 23 points last week.

Three numbers to know

The Raptors lead the league in the percentage of their shots that have come in the paint (53%), but rank just 19th in field goal percentage in the paint (57%).They’ve seen the league’s third-biggest jump in ball movement and its biggest jump in assist ratio, having recorded assists on 68.1% of their field goals (second highest), up from 57.1% (26th) last season. They lead the league in the percentage of their 3-point attempts (82%) that have come off the catch.They lead the league for the second straight season in the percentage of their points (28.0%) that have come from fast breaks (15.8%, first) or second chances (12.2%, 14th).

No team in NBA history has ever gone winless within its division, but the Raptors are 0-11 against the Atlantic Division as they come out of the break. Three of their five remaining division games are against the Nets, who will be in Toronto on Thursday.

Week 18: vs. BKN, @ ATL

#25Memphis GrizzliesLast Week:26↑

Record: 20-36

OffRtg: 107.7 (30) DefRtg: 113.5 (10) NetRtg: -5.9 (25) Pace: 99.1 (18)

The Grizzlies ended a nine-game losing streak and went into the break with two straight wins, with GG Jackson totaling 47 points on 18-for-32 shooting over the two games.

Three numbers to know

The Grizzlies have seen the league’s biggest drops in both winning percentage (-.265) and point differential per 100 possessions (-9.9). They’re the only team to have matched or surpassed its loss total from last season (51-31), and they’re 20-36 with the point differential of a team that’s just 16-40. That’s the biggest differential between a team’s actual wins and its “expected” wins.They entered the season as one of three teams — the Heat and Suns were the others — that have ranked in the top 10 defensively in each of the last three seasons. Both Memphis and Miami are there again, with the Grizzlies ranking fifth defensively (114.9 points allowed per 100 possessions) in (17) games against the league’s top 10 offenses.They’ve attempted 6.4 times as many 3-pointers as mid-range shots, the league’s highest ratio.

It will be interesting to see when (or if) Marcus Smart and/or Desmond Bane return to action. They were both ruled out for (at least) six weeks a little less than six weeks ago.

Week 18: vs. LAC

#26Portland Trail BlazersLast Week:25↓

Record: 15-39

OffRtg: 108.5 (29) DefRtg: 117.3 (22) NetRtg: -8.8 (28) Pace: 98.3 (24)

The Blazers had a tough schedule and a bunch of injuries leading into the break. They’ve dropped (at least) six straight games for the third time this season.

Three numbers to know

The Blazers lead the league in the percentage of their minutes (48%) that have come from rookies (30%, highest) or second-year players (19%, seventh highest). They have three of the 16 rookies that have played at least 675 total minutesThey’ve been outscored by 18.7 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter, the worst mark for any team in any quarter.They have the league’s fourth-best record (6-3) in the second games of back-to-backs.

The Blazers climbed out of the basement in offensive efficiency a few weeks ago, but they’ll play seven of their first eight post-break games against teams that rank in the top 10 defensively. The one exception (Sunday) is their first of two meetings against Charlotte, with the Blazers currently 3-4 against the other five teams that come out of the break with fewer than 20 wins.

Week 18: vs. DEN, vs. CHA

#27Charlotte HornetsLast Week:29↑

Record: 13-41

OffRtg: 109.5 (27) DefRtg: 120.3 (30) NetRtg: -10.8 (30) Pace: 98.8 (20)

The Hornets went into the break with their first three-game winning streak of the season. It was, by far, their best three-game stretch of defense (104.1 points allowed per 100 possessions), with two of the opponents — Indiana and Atlanta — having top-10 offenses.

Three numbers to know

The Hornets have been outscored by 10.8 points per 100 possessions, the worst mark for any team in the last 12 seasons (since the 2011-12 Bobcats were outscored by 15.0 per 100). Their wins over the Grizzlies and Hawks in the last five days before the break were their first and second victories that weren’t within five points in the last five minutes.From 2021-22 to last season, the Hornets saw the league’s biggest drop in points scored per 100 possessions. From last season to this season, they’ve seen its biggest jump in points allowed per 100 possessions, allowing 5.6 more than they did in ’22-23 (114.7, 20th).They have seven wins (third most) in games they trailed after the third quarter. They’ve been outscored by 13.5 points per 100 possessions through the first three quarters, but are just a minus-2.5 in the fourth, with the league’s ninth-ranked fourth-quarter offense. Of course, their first and fourth-leading fourth-quarter scorers (total points) are no longer on the team.

The league’s 30th-ranked defense has a league-high 13 post-break games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively. The first of those is Friday at Golden State, with the Hornets also playing 13 of their first 17 post-break games on the road.

Week 18: @ UTA, @ GSW, @ POR

#28San Antonio SpursLast Week:30↑

Record: 11-44

OffRtg: 109.0 (28) DefRtg: 117.5 (23) NetRtg: -8.5 (27) Pace: 102.2 (4)

The Spurs are 1-4 on the Rodeo trip, with four more games left to go. The one win (in Toronto last Monday) was, statistically, their best defensive game of the season (99 points allowed on 108 possessions).

Three numbers to know

The Spurs are in position to rank in the bottom 10 on both ends of the floor for the second straight season, having ranked in the bottom 10 on either end of the floor just once in the previous 25 seasons.They’ve recorded assists on 70.0% of their field goals, the highest rate for any team in the last seven seasons. Their starting lineup has recorded assists on 76.2% of its buckets, the highest rate among 67 lineups that have played at least 100 minutes.Victor Wembanyama (26.0, 12.7 and 4.03) would be the first player to average at least 25 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks per 36 minutes in the 51 seasons for which blocks have been tracked. His usage rate of 31.1% would be the highest for a rookie who’s played at least 1,000 minutes in the 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.

The Spurs have the league’s second-toughest post-break schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.535) and it begins with the last four games of the rodeo trip.

Week 18: @ SAC, @ LAL, @ UTA

#29Washington WizardsLast Week:27↓

Record: 9-45

OffRtg: 111.0 (25) DefRtg: 119.5 (27) NetRtg: -8.5 (26) Pace: 103.5 (1)

The Wizards went into the break with eight straight games against teams that currently have winning records, and they lost all eight, dropping them to 1-33 against that group.

Three numbers to know

The Wizards lead the league in pace, having seen the biggest jump (+4.4 possessions per 48 minutes) from last season (99.2, 19th). Their one win over a team that’s currently over .500 (Dec. 15 vs. Indiana) was the fastest-paced game of the season (league-wide).They’re the only winless team (0-9) in the second games of back-to-backs. The last team to go winless without rest over a full season was the 1990-91 Kings (0-17). They have four back-to-backs remaining on their schedule, with the first being at Denver and at Oklahoma City on Thursday and Friday.They’re 3-18 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes, which would be the worst clutch record in the 28 seasons for which we have clutch data.

The Wizards are two losses from being the second team to match its total from last season (35-47), and the string of games against good teams didn’t end at the All-Star break. Their first six games coming out of the break are against teams that currently have winning records.

Week 18: @ DEN, @ OKC, vs. CLE

#30Detroit PistonsLast Week:28↓

Record: 8-46

OffRtg: 110.9 (26) DefRtg: 119.8 (28) NetRtg: -8.9 (29) Pace: 101.2 (7)

After winning the first two games of a five-game trip, the Pistons dropped three straight going into the break, scoring less than a point per possession over the three games.

Three numbers to know

The Pistons rank last in turnover differential, having averaged 3.4 more than their opponents. Their last two games before the All-Star break were just the 10th and 11th times that they had a negative (good) turnover differential.They rank last in 3-point rate, having taken just 34.7% of their shots from beyond the arc. And the two Pistons who averaged the most 3-point attempts per 36 minutes — Alec Burks (9.9) and Bojan Bogdanovic (8.1) — were traded at the deadline.They’ve been outscored by just 1.9 points per 100 possessions in 479 minutes with Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren on the floor together, a huge improvement from their on-court mark of minus-12.7 per 100 in just 464 minutes last season.

The Pistons still need one more win to guarantee that they won’t finish with the worst record in NBA history. The early, post-break schedule won’t do them any favors, with six of their next seven games coming against teams currently over .500. The one exception (at Chicago next Tuesday) is a rest-disadvantage game.

Week 18: @ IND, vs. ORL