Playoff Power Rankings: Celtics, Wolves on top to begin conference semifinals

Jayson Tatum (right) and Derrick White have Boston looking sharp as the conference semifinals begin.

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There was a thought that the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves, because of their youth and lack of past playoff success, were the most vulnerable high seeds in the 2024 playoffs.

Instead, they were the only teams that swept their first-round series, and the Wolves are now a game up on the defending champs. It’s a new day in the NBA, the first postseason since 2005 in which Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and LeBron James are all watching the conference semifinals from home (or a beachside resort somewhere).

Neither the Thunder nor the Wolves are No. 1 as we rank the teams still playing. That distinction still belongs to the Boston Celtics, the team that remains most likely to reach The Finals.

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Plus-Minus Players of the first round

Right Way: Jayson Tatum (BOS) was a plus-78 in five games.Wrong Way: Kevin Durant (PHX) was a minus-71 in four games.

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Previously …

April 22: Where all 16 teams stand at top of first roundThe archive: NBA.com Power Rankings

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OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (League Rank)DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (League Rank)NetRtg: Point differential per 100 possessions (League Rank)Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes (League Rank)

The 16 teams have averaged 111.1 points scored per 100 possessions and 93.7 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes in the playoffs, down from 114.5 and 99.2 (for all 30 teams) in the regular season.

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NBA.com’s Power Rankings, released every Monday during the season, are just one man’s opinion. If you have an issue with the rankings, or have a question or comment for John Schuhmann, send him an e-mail or contact him via threads.

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#1Boston CelticsLast Week:1

Playoffs: 4-1

OffRtg: 117.7 (3) DefRtg: 100.7 (3) NetRtg: +17.0 (1) Pace: 91.6 (13)

First round: Beat Miami in 5 gamesConf. semis: vs. Cleveland

The Celtics took care of business in the first round, eliminating the team that nobody wanted to play with relative ease. But they lost Kristaps Porzingis along the way, and he’s expected to miss all of the conference semis.

Three takeaways

The Celtics’ lineup with Al Horford in Porzingis’ place wasn’t great (plus-2.7 points per 100 possessions) in the regular season. But it did outscore the Heat by 21 points (22.8 per 100 possessions) in 42 minutes in the first round.They allowed the Heat to score just 100.7 points per 100 possessions, making it their best five-game stretch of defense and the Heat’s second-worst stretch of offense this season. Miami ranked last in the first round in both free throw rate and offensive rebounding percentage.Derrick White has an effective field goal percentage of 72.5%, the best mark among 85 players with at least 35 field goal attempts and up from 57.8% in the regular season. (That’s the biggest jump among those same 85 players.) And that’s not just about 3-point shooting, as he’s 18-for-23 (78%) in the paint.

With their win in Game 5 on Wednesday, the Celtics are 22-4 without Porzingis, a record that includes a 10-3 mark against playoff teams. He was available for all three of their regular-season games against the Cavs, and all three were within five points in the last five minutes.

Next game: Tue. vs. CLE, 7 p.m. ET, TNT

#2Minnesota TimberwolvesLast Week:3↑

Playoffs: 5-0

OffRtg: 121.6 (1) DefRtg: 108.9 (5) NetRtg: +12.7 (3) Pace: 94.6 (8)

First round: Beat Phoenix in 4 gamesConf. semis: Lead 1-0 vs. Denver

Is it more surprising that the Wolves are 5-0 with a win in Denver on Saturday, or that they have the No. 1 offense in the playoffs?

Three takeaways

The Wolves had the No. 1 offense in the first round, regarding both raw points per 100 possessions (123.2) and how efficiently teams scored compared to how many points per 100 possessions their opponent allowed in the regular season (+9.5 vs. Phoenix’s regular-season DefRtg of 113.7). Then, after an ugly first half, the Wolves scored an amazing 66 points on 43 possessions (before forfeiting the last one) after halftime to pull off a Game 1 upset in Denver.Seven different Wolves have averaged double-figures over their five games, and they’re led by Anthony Edwards, who’s averaged 33.4 points on a true shooting percentage of 65.6%, what would be the sixth-highest mark in NBA history for a player who’s averaged at least 30 points in five playoff games or more (94 total instances).Two teams have shot more effectively in the playoffs, but the Wolves have given themselves a ton of second chances. Their total rebounding percentage of 57.7% would be the highest mark for any team in the playoffs in the 28 years for which we have play-by-play data.

It’s hard to believe that the Wolves can continue to score this efficiently. But if they continue to dominate the glass (the Nuggets’ three offensive boards on Saturday were a season low) and defend at a high level, they can continue to win.

Next game: Mon. @ DEN, 10 p.m. ET, TNT

#3Oklahoma City ThunderLast Week:4↑

Playoffs: 4-0

OffRtg: 109.6 (10) DefRtg: 93.5 (1) NetRtg: +16.2 (2) Pace: 95.9 (2)

First round: Beat New Orleans in 4 gamesConf. semis: vs. Dallas

So much for inexperience. The Thunder took care of business in the first round, sweeping the Pelicans by shutting them down defensively.

Three takeaways

The 93.5 points per 100 possessions that the Pelicans scored in the first round was the lowest mark for any team in a playoff series in the last eight years. It was also 23 fewer per 100 than New Orleans scored in the regular season (116.5, 11th). The Pelicans ranked last in the first round in field goal percentage in the paint (47.6%), 3-point percentage (26.7%) and turnover rate (18.8 per 100 possessions).As they did in the regular season, the Thunder led all teams in the first round in 3-point percentage (38.7%), with Lu Dort (12-for-23) and Josh Giddey (9-for-18) setting the tone. Those 18 attempts accounted for 47% of Giddey’s total field goal attempts, up from 29% in the regular season, with that being the second-biggest jump among 85 players with at least 35 field goal attempts through Sunday. The Thunder offense was at its best (118.7 points scored per 100 possessions) with Giddey on the floor.The offense wasn’t so great in the margins, ranking low in free throw rate (12th), turnover rate (10th) and offensive rebounding percentage (15th). Games 1 and 4 were just the fourth and fifth times that the Thunder scored a point per possession or less this season.

Defending the Mavs will be much tougher. The Thunder won three of the four regular-season meetings, but Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving played together in only one of the four, the one in which Dallas scored 146 points on 106 possessions (138 per 100), the second most efficient game any team had against Oklahoma City this season.

Next game: Tue. vs. DAL, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

#4Denver NuggetsLast Week:2↓

Playoffs: 4-2

OffRtg: 112.4 (8) DefRtg: 110.6 (8) NetRtg: +1.9 (7) Pace: 95.7 (6)

First round: Beat L.A. Lakers in 5 gamesConf. semis: Trail 0-1 vs. Minnesota

Uh oh. The Nuggets are in a hole after losing Game 1 of the conference semis at home on Saturday and Jamal Murray is not at his best, dealing with a calf strain that has him questionable for Monday’s Game 2. The champs didn’t trail in any of their four series last year, losing only four of their 20 playoff games.

Three takeaways

The Nuggets have grabbed 53.7% of available rebounds in their four wins, but just 45.3% in their two losses, with the bigger differential coming on the offensive glass. Their offensive rebounding percentage on Saturday (11.6%) was their lowest mark of the season, down from 32.8% over their four regular-season meetings against Minnesota.Murray has averaged 22.5 points per game, hit two game-winners in the first round and is 7-for-8 with the score within five points in the last five minutes. But he has an overall true shooting percentage of just 47.7%, the lowest mark (by a healthy margin) among the 29 players who’ve averaged at least 18 points in the playoffs. He’s just 9-for-33 (27%) from mid-range, down from 47% in the regular season.The Wolves did a good job of cutting off the Murray-Jokic two-man game, with the duo totaling just two assists to each other in Game 1, down from 4.5 per game in the regular season and 5.6 per game in the first round.

The Nuggets did lose a home game in last year’s playoffs, dropping Game 2 vs. Miami in The Finals. They won their last five road games in their title run and must win at least one in Minnesota. First, they need to even the series on Monday.

JAMAL MURRAY HITS THE GAME-WINNER IN DENVER!! pic.twitter.com/kIZ7EIW2sV

— NBA TV (@NBATV) April 23, 2024

Next game: Mon. vs. MIN, 10 p.m. ET, TNT

#5Dallas MavericksLast Week:7↑

Playoffs: 4-2

OffRtg: 115.9 (7) DefRtg: 109.5 (6) NetRtg: +6.4 (4) Pace: 92.0 (11)

First round: Beat LA Clippers in 6 gamesConf. semis: vs. Oklahoma City

The Mavs probably benefitted from Kawhi Leonard’s absence in four of six games in the first round, but they won the two games he played and are in the conference semis for just the second time since they won the title in 2011.

Three takeaways

The biggest difference between the Mavs’ defense before the trade deadline and after it was in their opponent shooting in the paint (60.5% vs. 52.7% when you remove those last two regular season games). The Clippers shot just 49.4% in the paint in the first round, down from 59.1% (eighth best) in the regular season.Luka Doncic did not shoot well in the first round, registering an effective field goal percentage of just 45.8%, a mark which ranks 30th among the 32 players with at least 75 field goal attempts in the playoffs and is down from a career-best 57.3% in the regular season. But the Mavs were still 41.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (plus-11.9) than they were with him off the floor (minus-29.6).Maxi Kleber’s absence will hurt the Mavs’ offense, which scored an amazing 131.9 points per 100 possessions in his 48 minutes at the five in the first round, compared to 110.1 per 100 in 231 total minutes with Daniel Gafford or rookie Dereck Lively II on the floor. (The defense has been much better in the Gafford or Lively minutes.)

Doncic and Kyrie Irving played just 22 total minutes together against the Thunder this season, when the Mavs did a pretty good job of defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. His 22 points per game in the season series was his second-lowest mark vs. any opponent.

KYRIE IN HIS BAG FOR THE 4-POINT PLAY 🥶 pic.twitter.com/M4B8i0coZl

— NBA TV (@NBATV) May 4, 2024

Next game: Tue. @ OKC, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

#6New York KnicksLast Week:10↑

Playoffs: 4-2

OffRtg: 116.7 (6) DefRtg: 116.9 (13) NetRtg: -0.2 (9) Pace: 91.1 (15)

First round: Beat Philadelphia in 6 gamesConf. semis: vs. Indiana

It’s been 24 years since the Knicks reached the conference finals. For the second straight postseason, they’ll be facing a bottom-four seed (coming off an upset of the Bucks) in the semifinals.

Three takeaways

The Knicks’ success vs. Philly was more about offense than defense. The Sixers were one of only two teams (the Wolves were the other) that scored more efficiently in the first round than in the regular season (116.2 points per 100 possessions). New York ranked just 11th in effective field goal percentage in the first round but was second in offensive rebounding percentage and fourth in turnover rate.With Bojan Bogdanovic done for the season, the Knicks played just seven guys in Games 5 and 6 against Philly, with three averaging more than 41 minutes over the course of the series. But they consistently played with energy for all 48 (or 53), retaining an amazing 50% of available offensive rebounds in fourth quarters. Josh Hart (eight in 72 minutes) and Mitchell Robinson (eight in 31 minutes) lead all players in fourth quarter offensive boards.The Knicks trailed by double-digits in each playoff win vs. the Sixers. That included Game 6, which they led by 22 after scoring an amazing 33 points on their first 16 possessions. They’re now 38-0 (the only undefeated team) after leading by 15 points or more.

The Pacers won the season series (2-1) and among Eastern Conference opponents, only the Celtics and Bucks scored more efficiently against the Knicks. But New York was without OG Anunoby for all three meetings, and he could be tasked with guarding former teammate Pascal Siakam in this series.

JOSH HART. CLUTCH TRIPLE 🤯 pic.twitter.com/DJNW8oiu4s

— NBA TV (@NBATV) May 3, 2024

Next game: Mon. vs. IND, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

#7Indiana PacersLast Week:14↑

Playoffs: 4-2

OffRtg: 119.4 (2) DefRtg: 116.8 (12) NetRtg: +2.6 (6) Pace: 92.9 (9)

First round: Beat Milwaukee in 6 gamesConf. semis: vs. New York

The Pacers have won a playoff series for the first time since 2014. A year before that, they beat the second-seeded Knicks in the conference semis.

Three takeaways

In the regular season, the Pacers recorded the highest regular-season assist/turnover ratio (2.38) in the 47 seasons for which turnovers have been tracked. In the first round, they had the highest assist/turnover ratio (3.07) for any team in any series in (at least) the last 30 years. They have four of the five players — Pascal Siakam (25/3), Andrew Nembhard (28/5), T.J. McConnell (27/6) and Tyrese Haliburton (56/16) — with at least 25 assists (26 players total) and an assist/turnover ratio of at least 3.5 in the playoffs.The Pacers don’t have Tyrese Maxey or Joel Embiid, but they’ll move the ball better than the Sixers against a Knicks defense that will load up on the ball. Indiana ranks first in both ball movement (397 passes per 24 minutes of possession) and player movement (11.8 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possession) in the playoffs, while Philly ranked in the bottom half in both.Indiana was the jump-shootingest team in the first round, taking 59% of their shots from outside of the paint. But it ranked first in field goal percentage in the paint at 62.7%. Nembhard has shot 18-for-27 (67%) in the paint and has seen the second-biggest jump in effective field goal percentage from the regular season (55.7%) to the playoffs (67.5%) among 85 players with at least 35 playoff field goal attempts.

The Pacers had the third most efficient game for a visiting team in Madison Square Garden this season, scoring 125 points on just 98 possessions in a 14-point win just before the All-Star break. They saw the biggest drop in pace from the regular season (102.2 possessions per 48 minutes, second) to the first round, so it’s not like they aren’t ready for the Knicks’ grind-it-out style.

Next game: Mon. @ NYK, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

#8Cleveland CavaliersLast Week:12↑

Playoffs: 4-3

OffRtg: 100.0 (15) DefRtg: 104.9 (4) NetRtg: -4.9 (12) Pace: 95.7 (4)

First round: Beat Orlando in 7 gamesConf. semis: vs. Boston

The Cavs weren’t exactly impressive in their first-round series against the Magic, but they eventually got the job done behind a second straight big game from Donovan Mitchell.

Three takeaways

The Cavs were outscored by 31 points over the seven games, the second-worst differential for a winning team in any series in the last 30 years. That mark is topped only by the Cavs’ minus-40 differential in the 2018 first-round vs. Indiana.Their 100 points scored per 100 possessions was the lowest mark for a winning team in any series in the last 10 years and 14.7 per 100 fewer than they scored in the regular season. They rank 16th in mid-range field goal percentage (32.8%), 15th in 3-point percentage (28.7%) and 15th in turnover rate (15.4 per 100 possessions) in the playoffs.The rebounding was not great, and the Cavs allowed the Magic to score more than 20 second-chance points in two of the seven games (including Game 7). But they ranked 11th in defensive rebounding percentage (69.6%) in the first round, as opposed to 16th (60.6%) last year. Remember, that was with Jarrett Allen missing the last three games with a rib contusion.

If Allen couldn’t play in Game 7, it seems doubtful he’ll be ready to go for Game 1 in Boston on Tuesday. The Cavs did play the Celtics will in the regular season, getting outscored by just 4.0 points per 100 possessions (second best among Boston’s Eastern Conference opponents) over three games, all of which were close down the stretch.

Next game: Tue. @ BOS, 7 p.m. ET, TNT