NBA Finals 2022: Beatable Warriors' experience and battle between offense & defense / News - Basketnews.com

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With the NBA Finals beginning the upcoming night, BasketNews presents the special 3x3 edition for the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics series.

As usual, our three staff members - Mindaugas Bertys, Uygar Karaca, and Giorgos Kyriakidis, will discuss three topics by providing the answers to three questions.

What will prevail in this Finals series - Celtics defense or Warriors offense?

Mindaugas: The Celtics are allowing their opponents to shoot 49.3% in effective field goal percentage during the Playoffs.

For context, that's lower than the lowest mark of any team in the regular season (49.4%, Pistons). Although the team has been riddled with injuries throughout the postseason, they managed to improve on their results from the regular season.

Interestingly enough, the Warriors are the best offense during this year's playoffs (1st in points per play), with most of the efficiency coming from halfcourt. On the other side, the Celtics are the best playoff defense in halfcourt (1st in halfcourt pts/play). The Warriors are first in putback points per play, the Celtics are fourth in defending them.

Boston is perfectly set to stop the very strengths that put Golden State in the Finals this year. As good as the Warriors are, the Celtics just have too many players capable of countering any move their opponents make.

Uygar: People also say that good offense eventually beats good defense, but I think our situation is much more complicated here.

Yes, Boston Celtics were the undisputedly (and statistically) best defensive team of the regular season AND the playoffs.

But on the other hand, the Warriors were right after the Celtics regarding defense during the regular season. Yes, they had their roster issues with injuries, and that level fell down a little bit in the latter part of the season and even in the playoffs.

But with Andre Iguodala, Otto Porter, and Gary Payton II's recovery seen on the horizon just before the finals, the Warriors' defense should not be underestimated.

However, some factors bring some questions.

One of them is whether Robert Williams can play in good condition despite his injured knee. Celtics definitely need him for rim protection and disruption from dribble attacks from the Warriors perimeter players. But on a bigger scale, can the Celtics' defense adjust one more time?

This time it's against a team who does not play too many pick&rolls and sets their offense on off-the-ball action. The drop-in scheme against aggressive drivers in the Heat and the Bucks series worked pretty well until now. But against the Warriors, they will probably need to switch a lot more to cut the Golden State quick ball movement flow.

No problem for the Celtics in that respect, as they are perhaps the best-switching team in the league. Despite that, Golden State is the superior team on the offensive end in the bigger picture.

But they will need to sharpen their spikes to match with the physicality of the Celtics and will not have a lot of luxury to have too many second-chance points against a potentially bigger opponent on the boards.

Given that, I think the Warriors are a more balanced team with a better basketball IQ, somewhat lesser turnover-prone, and more experienced. They have the best offensive rating for a reason, and they are definitely back for a new title.

Giorgos: It's important to note that these are the two best defensive teams in the NBA this season, as measured by defensive rating.

Reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, 2021-22 NBA All-Defensive Second Team selection Robert Williams and versatile big man Al Horford anchor Boston's league-leading defense.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown provide a combination of length and switchability to deal with screening actions, crowd the passing lanes, and move across the positional spectrum.

Al Horford is a versatile switch big who can provide competent rim protection. Robert Williams is capable of guarding the paint while also supporting switch defense. Grant Williams allows the Celtics to play their best small-ball lineup off the bench. Derrick White is a supreme screen navigator. The Celtics bank on stagnating offenses, looking to force inefficiency and bad shots.

On the other hand, the Golden State Warriors' offense is the result of superior playmaking skills and constant motion from almost every position. The off-ball element is profound, including several screen actions fueled by the offensive talents of Stephen Curry. At the same time, the presence of former Defensive Player of the Year and 2021-22 All-Defensive Second Team member Draymond Green and All-Star forward Andrew Wiggins render Golden State's defense one of their most effective tool.

Using their length and physicality to blow up screening actions on and off the ball, protecting the rim, and limiting paint touches will definitely help the Celtics put the brakes on their opponents.

In theory, Boston has all the ingredients to neutralize the Warriors' firepower, even by taking the risk of allowing Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole to score on jumpers but not pass the ball to other open shooters.

Which player in your eyes could become a game-changer in this series?

Mindaugas: I was choosing between Robert Williams III and Grant Williams, and I'm going with the latter.

He was probably the main contributor in stopping Kevin Durant, he was crucial in limiting Giannis Antetokounmpo. Tough, physical, long, tireless fighter – that's what championship teams need, and he's just that.

Before coming to the NBA, Grant Williams was a fan of Draymond Green and even rooted for the Warriors in their Finals matchups against LeBron's Cavaliers. Draymond is a media personality now, Grant is the new Draymond on the court.

Celtics head coach Ime Udoka has shined in the Playoffs with his ability to adapt and come up with new ways of attacking the opponents on the defensive end. The series will depend on which player Grant Williams will be trusted to defend in each of the games.

Uygar: Tough choice and I would have said that it would be Derrick White if I thought the Celtics would win the Finals.

But in my thought, that would be Andrew Wiggins from Golden State. Certainly, he is not expected to be the finals MVP when Steph Curry, Jordan Poole, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown are ready to give their best. But Wiggins' variance will be quite decisive on both ends of the court.

Regarding the defense, he would probably be getting the biggest assignment with Jayson Tatum. During the Mavericks series, he did not do badly on Luka Doncic.

Of course, Luka likes to play face-up, while Tatum also hovers around the wings and gets the side actions with the ball. Besides, Tatum has a post-up game where Wiggins can match with strength, but sometimes he struggles to close down the passing lanes while defending that kind of play.

In the offense, he managed to transform his abilities to operate as a floor spacer in the Golden State scheme, but his offensive production with the ball in his hand might be quite decisive for the GSW offense.

During the playoffs, Wiggins was the biggest on/off offensive contributor for his team (whilst his possession usage was sub 20% usage for the most of time) and averaged 15.8 points on 48% FG.

If we consider that the rock-solid and ever-flexible Celtics defense will focus on the triple threat of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole, Wiggins' shooting accuracy or at least the decisions when he has the ball could be significant to maintain GSW's offensive flow.

By the way, he shot 39% from three during the regular season (career-best) but 29% during the Mavericks series. (including 0/7 in the Game 5).

Giorgos:Golden State center Kevon Looney and Boston forward Grant Williams have been unsung heroes for their respective teams.

Looney is a relatively small big who can make shots in the paint but also drive to the rim, pass to a teammate at the perimeter, and aid the team in making a crucial 3-point play.

He is adept at getting the rebound for a smaller center and quick enough to create problems for anyone he's defending. His defense, rebounding, and scoring at the rim have proved essential for the Warriors, especially in the Western Conference Finals, where he posted two double-doubles and had the highest-scoring game of his NBA career (21 points).

In any case, the 26-year-old will face a much tougher test in Boston's frontcourt. Grant Williams energizes the Celtics with his defense and 3-point shooting, shifting between the starting lineup and a reserve role. His production has slowed down considerably since his heroics in Game 7 against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Overall, he's been solid enough as a 23-year-old who serves as a 7th or 8th man on a serious title contender. Williams has become an integral part of the rotation, averaging more minutes in the postseason than during the regular season.

On the defensive end, he has shown he can guard any position on the court, having been able to pin down Kevin Durant and stand his ground against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday in the conference semifinals. If he manages to shoot with some consistency from a distance, things will be much better for the Celtics.

Is the experience factor overrated, or does it give the Warriors a significant edge?

Mindaugas: None of the Celtics players has been in the NBA Finals. However, only five players from the Warriors have been in the Finals before, including Andre Iguodala, who plays minuscule minutes, and Kevon Looney.

The Celtics are hungrier for the title. In my eyes, all the Warriors are fighting for is legacy. Yes, Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins are hungry, but they're as much inexperienced in the Finals as any of the Celtics players.

Since 1988, teams that won Game 7 to get to the Finals are 4-3 to win it all. The hungrier team stands atop of the others more often than not, and the Celtics are that team this year.

Uygar: Regarding the Finals, experience is certainly needed, and it is by no means an overrated factor.

In that sense, the Warriors have the upper edge with many players and their coach, Steve Kerr. Six finals in eight years for the franchise is something that you cannot overlook.

Besides the history, they also have extra motivation as well; there is a great story of revival here. Not every franchise can bounce back that fast with all those injuries and rebuilding decisions after the heartbreak in the 2019 Finals.

However, the Celtics should be hungrier as it's their first final since 2010. Besides, they also had a hard time coming back since losing against LeBron and the Cavs back in the 2018 Conference Finals.

The president of basketball operations, Brad Stevens, knows all these hard lessons better than any other Celtics player. He was the coach through all those years when the Celtics were falling behind the expectations.

I don't think that the difference in experience would determine the fate of the finals. Ime Udoka is a first-year head coach but ripe for this great challenge. At least he proved it during the Celtics' pretty eventful playoff run, knocking out Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and the Heat.

Coming over all the adversity and beating all these great teams, led by superstars like KD, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jimmy Butler. All these probably made the Celtics an even better team, solidified their bondage, and consolidated their self-confidence.

Giorgos: No player on the Celtics' roster has ever played in the NBA Finals before. Boston is looking to accomplish what the Milwaukee Bucks did last season when they won the NBA championship without a player on the roster with previous NBA Finals experience.

It's also something that the Warriors did in the 2014-15 season, just before racking up another four straight Finals appearances.

By comparison, the current Golden State team has Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green on the court, while Steve Kerr will be calling the plays in what will be their sixth Finals in eight seasons. Each of them has won three championships.

The Warriors have been in various situations with the game on the line in the Finals (leading, trailing, tied) and have found ways to win games. Everyone should be aware that the players and the bench will know how to execute and react in late-game situations.

Forward Andrew Wiggins and guard Jordan Poole weren't on the roster before 2019. Those two players have since put their stamp on the franchise as indispensable tools. The Celtics have plenty of experience in the conference finals, but this is another level of intensity and pressure. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, first-time head coach Ime Udoka and all the supporting cast at Boston must learn along the way.

The kind of experience that matters the most is the one that stems from playing together. The success of both teams is rooted in drafting, developing, and maintaining a core group of players. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green were drafted by the Warriors and have been together for 10 years (including two missed seasons for Thompson).

Similarly, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart were drafted by the Celtics and have been together for five years, with center Robert Williams joining that trio for the last four seasons.

Both teams have seen continuity pay off. However, in this particular comparison, the Warriors have the upper hand.

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