Checking in on the NBA's rookie-scale extension candidates

When the new league year beganon July 1, NBA teams were quick to sign free agents and startnegotiating extensions with some of their youngerplayers.

Players who were selected in thefirst round of the NBA Draft are signed to rookie-scale contracts,which are eligible to be extended on the first day (July 1) of thefourth and final year of their deal. This past offseason, the vastmajority of players eligible for rookie-scale extensions werepicked in the first round in 2020. Teams have until the day beforethe start of the 2023-24 regular season (which begins on October24) to agree to an extension, or else those players will hitrestricted free agency next summer.

Out of the 30 first-round picksin the 2020 NBA Draft, 27 were eligible for rookie-scaleextensions. In addition, the Orlando Magic’s Chuma Okeke alsobecame eligible for a rookie-scale extension because he signed hisrookie deal in 2020, a year after he was drafted due to injury. Sofar this offseason, five players have signed extensions, with fourof them receiving maximum contracts.

Those who received the maxsigned what’s called a Designated Rookie Extension, which has astarting salary at 25% of the 2024-25 salary cap (projected at$37,405,750) with 8% raises over five years (for a total contractvalue of $216,953,350). However, via the “Derrick Rose rule,” ifany of the players who signed one of these extensions is a memberof any of the 2023-24 All-NBA teams, their starting salary will beset at 30% of the 2024-25 salary cap (projected at $44,886,900)with 8% raises over five years (for a total contract value of$260,344,020). These players include Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards,Charlotte’s LaMelo Ball, Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton and Memphis’Desmond Bane. However, Bane’s extension doesn’t contain the “RoseRule” language, so he can’t receive a starting salary raise even ifhe earns an All-NBA nod.

There is also a new wrinkle inthe Collective Bargaining Agreement that changed the rules inregards to rookie-scale extensions, allowing teams to offer allplayers an extension up to five years. Previously, only players whowere offered maximum contracts could agree to an extension up tofive years. So far, no team has given out a five-year non-maxextension.

The only player who has signed anon-max rookie extension this offseason is Detroit’s IsaiahStewart. Stewart, the No. 16 pick in 2020, has been a starter forthe rebuilding Pistons over the past few years. The tough,defensive big man agreed to a four-year, $64 million extension with$60 million guaranteed, $4 million in potential performance bonusesand a team option in the final season. Stewart’s extension couldserve as a potential benchmark for other big man extensioncandidates like Toronto’s Precious Achiuwa and Atlanta’s OnyekaOkongwu.

With 21 first-round picks (andOkeke) still awaiting a potential extension, let’s take a look atwho is most likely to receive an extension and what their dealsmight look like.

LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED

Patrick Williams (Chicago Bulls): Williams has been a steady force for the Bullsamid the team’s struggles to consistently play winning basketball.The former Florida State forward has improved his shooting eachyear of his career but has yet to really break out as a primaryscoring option for Chicago. Williams is just 22 years old and stillhas a lot of potential, so he should command an extension similarto what Atlanta’s De’Andre Hunter received last summer.

Extension Prediction: Fouryears, $90,000,000, no options

Onyeka Okongwu (Atlanta Hawks): Okongwu has been slotted as the Hawks’ centerof the future for a few years now and has mostly looked the partbacking up Clint Capela. Atlanta has a very crowded cap sheet,especially after extending Dejounte Murray. It is possible theycould look to move Capela soon in order to free up cap space andgive the starting center job to Okongwu. As mentioned above, lookfor Okongwu to ask for slightly above what Detroit gave IsaiahStewart.

Extension Prediction: Fouryears, $72,000,000, could earn up to $80,000,000 with incentives,no options

Devin Vassell (San Antonio Spurs): The Spurs should try to lock up some of theirreliable young pieces as they begin the Victor Wembanyama era.Similar to what San Antonio did with Keldon Johnson, they’ll likelylook to give Vassell a long-term value deal. They also could takeadvantage of the new CBA rules, keeping the former No. 11 pickunder contract through 2029.

Extension Prediction: Fiveyears, $110,000,000, no options

Josh Green (Dallas Mavericks): Green has quietly been developing very nicelywith the Mavericks and could fight for a spot in the startinglineup this fall. The Australian native has shown real potential asa 3-and-D wing and could command the full mid-level exception if hereaches the open market next summer. Dallas shouldn’t (and mostlikely won’t) let that happen.

Extension Prediction: Fouryears, $65,000,000, no options

Immanuel Quickley (New York Knicks):Quickley is coming off his bestseason as a pro that saw him finish as runner-up for the NBA’sSixth Man of the Year award. A scoring machine, the former Kentuckyguard would likely start for a good chunk of NBA teams, but willlikely have to be the backup as long as Jalen Brunson is in NewYork. The Knicks would certainly love to keep Quickley, but lookfor them to wait all the way up to the October 23 deadline to payhim in order to maintain trade flexibility.

Extension Prediction: Fouryears, $88,000,000, could earn up to $92,000,000 with incentives,no options

Jaden McDaniels (Minnesota Timberwolves):McDaniels is certainly viewed as acore piece by the Timberwolves’ brass as they fought hard to keephim out of the Rudy Gobert trade, sacrificing more draft capitalinstead. The Washington product has been a versatile, two-wayplayer since arriving in Minnesota and is an ideal wing next toAnthony Edwards. He should be paid accordingly.

Extension Prediction: Fouryears, $100,000,000, no options, declining annualsalary

LIKELY TO REACH RESTRICTED FREE AGENCY

James Wiseman (Detroit Pistons): Wiseman has been better on both sides of theball since being traded to Detroit last February, but his gamestill needs to be developed further if the Pistons are to seriouslyinvest in him.

Isaac Okoro (Cleveland Cavaliers): Cleveland has been looking for a permanentsolution at their starting small-forward position for some timenow, resulting in them paying Caris LeVert and signing Max Strus.Okoro hasn’t shown he can be the Cavs’ long-termsolution.

Obi Toppin (Indiana Pacers): If Toppin had stayed in New York, there’s noway he would have been extended. Now in Indiana, the formerNaismith National Player of the Year should get a chance to startand improve his stock going into next summer.

Deni Avdija (Washington Wizards): Avdija is a pretty good young player outside ofhis shooting struggles. With a new regime in Washington, Avdija maybe a trade candidate if new president Michael Winger doesn’t seehim as a part of the team’s long-term plan.

Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers): A starter for the Pacers last year, Nesmith maybe buried on the depth chart with the additions of Toppin androokie Jarace Walker. He hasn’t made enough of an impact to warrantan extension.

Cole Anthony (Orlando Magic): Anthony has been a solid bench contributor forOrlando since being drafted out of North Carolina. However, theMagic backcourt is extremely crowded with the addition of rookieAnthony Black, making them unlikely to prioritize securing a dealwith Anthony.

Aleksej Pokusevski (Oklahoma City Thunder):Poku is coming off a fractured legthat kept him out for the back half of last season. He needs toshow that he can be a long-term piece if he wishes to stay with theThunder.

Saddiq Bey (Atlanta Hawks): Bey is certainly talented enough to warrant anextension, fitting into the starting five seamlessly after beingacquired from Detroit at the trade deadline. However, the team mayhave to choose between extending Bey or Okongwu in order to managetheir already-very-full salary cap sheet.

Precious Achiuwa (Toronto Raptors):The Raptors have already committedto a center in Jakob Poeltl this offseason. Achiuwa hasn’t shownenough to break through outside of his bench role to warrant anextension.

Zeke Nnaji (Denver Nuggets): Despite not being a regular member of therotation, Nnaji has shown he is a capable backup option to NikolaJokic when he’s on the floor. While an extension isn’t in thecards, the Nuggets should look to retain him.

Payton Pritchard (Boston Celtics): Boston would probably love to keep Pritchard ona team-friendly deal, as he has been a reliable insurance optionfor them since coming into the league. The former Oregon guard willmore than likely want to test the free-agency market to see if hecan possibly find a path to more playing time elsewhere.

LIKELY TO NOT RECEIVE A QUALIFYING OFFER, BECOME ANUNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT NEXT SUMMER

Killian Hayes (Detroit Pistons): Hayes has not lived up to his top-10 pickbilling and has fallen out of Pistons general manager Troy Weaver’slong-term outlook. Detroit could extend him a qualifying offer nextsummer, but he likely won’t receive much interest on the openmarket.

Kira Lewis Jr. (New Orleans Pelicans):Lewis has been relegated to areserve while suffering through multiple injuries through his firstthree years in the NBA. The Pelicans have made it known league-widethat he is available for trade.

Chuma Okeke (Orlando Magic): Okeke has struggled with his all-around gamefor the better part of the last two years and is unlikely to beretained by Orlando going forward.

Malachi Flynn (Toronto Raptors): Flynn hasn’t taken advantage of the manyopportunities he’s had to be a part of the Raptors’ rotation as thebackup point guard. He may see some run this year, but the Raptorsmay have seen enough to move on this summer.

THE TYRESE MAXEY WILD CARD

Tyrese Maxey (Philadelphia 76ers): Maxey is the wild card of the rookie-extensioncandidates, as Sixers general manager Daryl Morey has said that theteam will hold off on extending the 22-year-old shooting guard inorder to maintain trade and cap flexibility going into next summer.Maxey has blossomed into a core member of the 76ers going forwardand would likely receive close to, if not the full, max rookieextension. With no end in sight to the James Harden debacle, theSixers may want to secure their young prize before their situationcould turn worse.