Battle for last place in the Play-In: whose chances are the best? / News - Basketnews.com

BasketNews evaluates Baskonia, Olimpia Milan, Partizan, Anadolu Efes, Valencia, Bayern, and Zalgiris' chances of reaching the EuroLeague Play-In by presenting each team's possibilities of reaching the Top 10, thanks to a complex calculation method.

Credit: EuroLeague | BasketNews illustration/M.Didė Credit EuroLeague | BasketNews illustration/M.Didė

The 2023-24 EuroLeague regular season has entered its most crucial stage, and there are still plenty of unknowns.

Real Madridis the only team certain about its position after clinching the No. 1 seed and a spot in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, most teams continue to battle either for the playoffs or the Play-In spots.

In this article,BasketNewstakes a look at the Play-In battle, which seems to have only one place left.

With the help of BasketNews data analyst Laurynas Sinkevicius, BasketNews calculated the possibilities of each team's chances of reaching the 10th seed and a ticket in the Play-In.

Methodology

In comparison to last week's edition, we brought one crucial update. This time, the possibilities include head-to-head matchups and tiebreaks between each team, making the calculations even more accurate.

The method evaluates each team's chances of finishing in 10th place at the end of the regular season. Even though only 2 regular season games remain, according to BasketNews calculations, there are still 262,144 possibilities left of how the season can unfold.

To ensure the calculations are as accurate and objective as possible, several factors of every team in this list were considered, including:

Head-to-head matchups and tiebreaks Recent form (last 5 games) Records at home and away games Points average PIR average Pace of play (data taken from hackastat.eu) Offensive rating per 100 possessions (data taken from hackastat.eu) Defensive rating per 100 possessions (data taken from hackastat.eu)

Finally, the algorithm calculates the probability of a particular team winning against a specific opponent by simulating 100,000 different scenarios to generate this probability.

Head-to-head matchups

With 8 teams still fighting for the positions in the Play-In, the head-to-head matchups might become a crucial factor for the final positions. Therefore, we present the table with all matchups among specific teams.

Green color indicates that the specific matchup is already won Red color indicates that the specific matchup is already lost Grey color indicates that the specific matchup isn't finished yet, and one game remains BAS EFE ZAL OLI PAR VAL BAY Baskonia -14 -35 +6 -3 -1 -8 Efes +14 -26 -10 -4 -1 +8 Zalgiris +35 +26 +27 -17 -10 -5 Olimpia -6 +10 -27 -11 +19 +14 Partizan +3 +4 +17 +11 +5 -10 Valencia +1 +1 +10 -19 -5 +1 Bayern +8 -8 +5 -14 +10 -1

9. Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (16-16)

Possibility of making the Play-In:91.8%

Remaining games:Real Madrid (A), Virtus (A)

Things change quickly in the EuroLeague. Therefore, we see Baskonia in the Play-In Race article.

After the loss against Anadolu Efes, Baskonia lost every chance to clinch the playoff berth. Of course, these chances were slim, and the Spanish team needs to focus on clinching the spot in the Play-In, at least.

And it's not a given yet. Baskonia are already on a 3-game losing streak, and they'll finish the regular season campaign with two away games against Real Madrid and Virtus. One win from these two games will be enough to secure a spot in the Play-In.

Chima MonekeCredit Teodoras Biliūnas/BNS

10. Anadolu Efes Istanbul (15-17)

Possibility of making the Play-In:81.9%

Remaining games: Fenerbahce (A), Crvena Zvezda (H)

Anadolu Efes got a crucial win against Baskonia last week and propelled themselves to the 10th place, securing the Play-In.

Despite the solid win, Efes still have a lot of work to do to maintain the 10th seed. Efes will likely need to win both remaining games since the Turkish team has a head-to-head advantage only against Bayern.

11. Zalgiris Kaunas (14-18)

Possibility of making the Play-In: 4.5%

Remaining games: Monaco (A), Real Madrid (H)

After winning against Olimpia Milan, Zalgiris threw themselves a lifeline in an attempt to secure the spot in the Play-In.

However, the Lithuanian powerhouse will face the No. 2 seed Monaco and the No. 1 Real Madrid, so finishing the regular season with two more wins will be very challenging.

Nevertheless, Zalgiris have a head-to-head advantage against Baskonia and Efes, which might come in very handy.

Keenan EvansCredit Erikas Ovčarenko/BNS

12. EA7 Emporio Armani Milan (14-18)

Possibility of making the Play-In: 5.3%

Remaining games: Virtus (H), Maccabi (A)

Despite finding some form in recent weeks, Olimpia Milan didn't stand a chance against Zalgiris on Thursday. Ettore Messina's squad isn't out of the Play-In picture completely, but they will need to win both remaining games and a few favorable results.

13. Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade (14-18)

Possibility of making the Play-In: 11.4%

Remaining games: ALBA (A), Valencia (H)

With only 3 wins in their last 10 games, Partizan didn't do any favors for themselves last week. Zeljko Obradovic's squad wasted a 14-point lead and lost against Olympiacos.

Luckily for Partizan, their schedule is rather favorable, so winning both remaining games should not be a problem for a team fighting for its life.

Partizan also have a tiebreak advantage against basically every team that is still in the mix for the Play-In. Nevertheless, the Serbian powerhouse will need beneficial outcomes from the other games.

Zeljko ObradovicCredit Partizan Mozzart Bet/Dragana Stjepanovic

14. Valencia Basket(14-18)

Possibility of making the Play-In: 5.1%

Remaining games: ASVEL (H), Partizan (A)

Just like Partizan, Valencia are from their best form. The Spanish team has a steep mountain to climb and can no longer rely on their results.

Assuming Valencia will beat ASVEL, the last matchup against Partizan could become a do-or-die game.

15. FC Bayern Munich (13-19)

Possibility of making the Play-In:0.01%

Remaining games: Panathinaikos (H), Monaco (A)

It's very easy to describe Bayern's chances of reaching the Play-In. They are basically non-existent, and the 0.01% possibility only confirms this.

The German team has not yet been eliminated from the Play-In contention, but at this point, it's only a technicality.

URBONUS podcast

Thank you for reading us! We have even more content for you.