EuroLeague playoff race: who will make the Top 6? / News - Basketnews.com
BasketNews evaluates Panathinaikos, Monaco, Barcelona, Olympiacos, Fenerbahce, and Maccabi's chances of getting a direct spot in the EuroLeague playoffs by presenting each team's possibilities of finishing in the Top 6, thanks to a complex calculation method.
Credit: EuroLeague | BasketNews illustration/M.Didė Credit EuroLeague | BasketNews illustration/M.DidėThe 2023-24 EuroLeague regular season has entered its most crucial stage, and there are still plenty of unknowns.
Real Madridis the only team certain about its position after clinching the No. 1 seed and a spot in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, most teams continue to battle either for the playoffs or the Play-In spots.
In this article, BasketNews takes a look at the playoff battle, which has five direct open spots to fill in.
With the help of BasketNews data analyst Laurynas Sinkevicius, BasketNews calculated the possibilities of each team's chances of reaching the 10th seed and a ticket in the Play-In.
Methodology
In comparison to last week's edition, we brought one crucial update. This time, the possibilities include head-to-head matchups and tiebreaks between each team, making the calculations even more accurate.
The method evaluates each team's chances of finishing in 10th place at the end of the regular season. Even though only 2 regular season games remain, according to BasketNews calculations, there are still 262,144 possibilities left of how the season can unfold.
To ensure the calculations are as accurate and objective as possible, several factors of every team in this list were considered, including:
Head-to-head matchups and tiebreaks Recent form (last 5 games) Records at home and away games Points average PIR average Pace of play (data taken from hackastat.eu) Offensive rating per 100 possessions (data taken from hackastat.eu) Defensive rating per 100 possessions (data taken from hackastat.eu)Finally, the algorithm calculates the probability of a particular team winning against a specific opponent by simulating 100,000 different scenarios to generate this probability.
Head-to-head matchups
With 8 teams still fighting for the positions in the Play-In, the head-to-head matchups might become a crucial factor for the final positions. Therefore, we present the table with all matchups among specific teams.
Green color indicates that the specific matchup is already won Red color indicates that the specific matchup is already lost Grey color indicates that the specific matchup isn't finished yet, and one game remains PAN MON BAR FEN OLY MAC Panathinaikos +26 0* -3 -6 -15 Monaco -26 +30 -5 +6 +18 Barcelona 0* -30 -6 +17 +2 Fenerbahce +3 +5 +6 +2 +30 Olympiacos +6 -6 -17 -2 +22 Maccabi +15 -18 -2 -30 -22* – Barcelona and Panathinaikos faced each other twice already. Interestingly, Barcelona won the first game 80-72, while Panathinaikos responded with an 89-81 victory in the second game.
Therefore, the head-to-head record is 1-1, and the points difference is 0. However, at the moment, Panathinaikos have a tiebreak over Barcelona because their points difference is better (+156 vs. +121).
2.Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens(21-11)
Possibility of finishing in the Top 6: 99.1%
Possibility of securing the home-court advantage:79.2%
Remaining games: Bayern (A), ALBA (H)
Even though it's not official just yet, Panathinaikos' spot in the playoffs is only a formality. Given the remaining schedule, it's very likely that Ergin Ataman's squad will remain in 2ndplace.
Ergin AtamanCredit Vangelis Stolis
3.AS Monaco(21-11)
Possibility of finishing in the Top 6:99.5%
Possibility of securing the home-court advantage:86.13%
Remaining games: Zalgiris (H), Bayern (A)
Monaco are in a very similar position to Panathinaikos. If everything goes as expected, the Monegasque club should win both games and stay in 3rd place.
4.FC Barcelona (21-11)
Possibility of finishing in the Top 6: 98.3%
Possibility of securing the home-court advantage: 74.7%
Remaining games: Maccabi (H), ASVEL (A)
Barcelona got the win against Bayern last week and basically secured their spot in the playoffs as well.
However, the Spanish powerhouse will face Maccabi on Thursday, and the loss might cost Barca the home-court advantage in the playoffs.
5. Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul (20-12)
Possibility of finishing in the Top 6: 83.4%
Possibility of securing the home-court advantage:38.0%
Remaining games: Anadolu Efes (H), Olympiacos (A)
At the moment, Fenerbahce have a tiebreak against every team in the Top 7. Knowing how tight the table is, it is a massive advantage and gives the Turkish team a decent chance to claim a home-court advantage in the playoffs.
Of course, for that to happen, Fenerbahce will need to win both games against Anadolu Efes and Olympiacos and wait for at least one Panathinaikos, Monaco, or Barcelona loss.
6.Olympiacos Piraeus(20-12)
Possibility of finishing in the Top 6:61.3%
Possibility of securing the home-court advantage:10.2%
Remaining games: Crvena Zvezda (A), Fenerbahce (H)
An incredible comeback against Partizan massively boosted Olympiacos' chances of finishing in the Top 6. The Greek powerhouse is 1 win ahead of Maccabi and has already won the head-to-head matchup against the Israeli team.
Can Olympiacos still claim a home-court advantage? In theory, yes. However, such a scenario is unlikely because Olympiacos won the head-to-head matchup only against Panathinaikos.
7.Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv(19-13)
Possibility of finishing in the Top 6:58.4%
Possibility of securing the home-court advantage:11.8%
Remaining games:Barcelona (A), Olimpia Milan (H)
Maccabi are the hottest EuroLeague team after winning 6 games in a row and finishing in the Top 6 is still on the table.
However, the problem for Maccabi is the fact that they don't have an advantage against any of the Top 6 teams except Panathinaikos.
Nevertheless, given the remaining schedules of Fenerbahce and Olympiacos, it's not impossible that one of them will finish the regular season with 2 losses that would open the doors for Maccabi to slide into the Top 6.
Wade Baldwin IVCredit Gints Ivuskans/GettyImages
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