EuroLeague Power Ranking: How wrong were the pre-season projections? / News - Basketnews.com

Only five teams significantly defied the pre-season power ranking, for better or for worse, while three spots were predicted with 100% accuracy.

Credit: Srdjan Stevanovic/Euroleague Basketball via Getty Images, Irina R. Hipolito/AFP7 via ZUMA Press Wire - Scanpix, Aitor Arrizabalaga via Getty Images Credit Srdjan Stevanovic/Euroleague Basketball via Getty Images, Irina R. Hipolito/AFP7 via ZUMA Press Wire - Scanpix, Aitor Arrizabalaga via Getty Images

It is often said that the EuroLeague is the most unpredictable tournament in European basketball. While some constants are usually known, predicting the final standings is almost impossible.

When the EuroLeague season is around the corner, BasketNews usually presents the Power Ranking of all teams in the tournament, where BasketNews staff and a multitude of journalists from various European countries submit their picks to determine their view of the upcoming season.

This season, opinions on some teams varied by as many as 15 standings spots and as few as three spots. With the EuroLeague regular season having come to an end, let's analyze which predictions were worthy of Baba Vanga and which should have rather been kept away from the public.

Check the BasketNews EuroLeague pre-season Power Rankings here

Best Picks

Overall, the picks in the initial pre-season ranking performed pretty well. Only five teams managed to defy the ranking by more than two positions.

While the multitude of coaching changes the teams made throughout the season could've significantly impacted the list, the accuracy, in the end, was respectable.

The pre-season BasketNews Power Ranking perfectly predicted the positions of three EuroLeague teams.

Real Madrid (Ranking 1st, Standings 1st)

As many could have guessed before the season, Real Madrid were seen as the overwhelming favorites in the ranking. The Spanish team comfortably took first place in the ranking.

The arrival of Facundo Campazzo to strengthen the only seeming weakness on the roster was seen as worthy of a 1st spot by the vast majority of the voters. Real Madrid proved the ones who gave them 1st spot right.

Los Blancos started the year dominantly and finished the season with 27 wins and just 7 losses, despite some struggles after the national cup break.

Three different Real Madrid players - Dzanan Musa, Mario Hezonja, and Facundo Campazzo - became Month MVPs, while the winner of the regular season was clear weeks before the conclusion of the last round.

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (Ranking 17th, Standings 17th)

The second team, the final position of which the BasketNews Power Rankings predicted with perfect accuracy, was LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne.

The French team had an up-and-down season, to say the least. ASVEL started the season with four straight losses and decided to change the coach, firing TJ Parker, the brother of the club's president, Tony Parker.

The extravagant Gianmarco Pozzecco took charge and brought the club its first win pretty quickly, but it was all a mirage, as the public later found out. Pozzecco's tenure lasted only a few months, and the Atomic Fly was let go in early January.

Tony Parker proceeded to publicly bash Pozzecco, revealing concerning details from the coach's tenure. Pierric Poupet, who replaced the Italian, won six of the club's nine games and had a 40% winning record.

ALBA Berlin (Ranking 18th, Standings 18th)

After finishing the 2022-23 EuroLeague season in 16th place, ALBA Berlin lost Luke Sikma, Maodo Lo, and Jaleen Smith - the three team leaders in PIR. In return, the Germans did not sign a single notable name besides Sterling Brown, who was about to debut in the EuroLeague.

ALBA's ranking fluctuated the least, with voters seeing the team only as high as 16th. ALBA did not prove the doubters wrong and finished the season with the second-worst record since the inception of the semi-closed league in 2016, trailing only Khimki Moscow Region, which won four games compared to ALBA's five.

While Johannes Thiemann took on a leadership role, vastly improving his averages, none of his teammates managed to provide consistent support. To finish the disappointing season, Gabriele Procida, the promising Italian prospect, picked up a serious injury.

Biggest Surprises

Only two teams vastly overperformed the initial expectations. Both clubs played against one another last week, and both of them will compete in the play-in tournament this week.

Virtus Segafredo Bologna (Ranking 16th, Standings 10th)

Virtus Segafredo Bologna's season started like no other. A few weeks before the season, head coach Sergio Scariolo was let go from his position following his comments during a press conference. Latvian national team's leader, Luca Banchi, was hired to replace him.

The team, which finished the last season in 14th place, remained largely the same, while the leaders of already one of the oldest teams in the competition got one year older. However, it all proved to be wrong.

Virtus started the season in a dominant manner, holding either the second or third spot in the standings for the majority of the first part of the season. Tornike Shengelia reminded everyone of his all-around prowess, Daniel Hackett finally got fully healthy and proved to be an effective backcourt leader, while Marco Belinelli, who seemed to have been almost forgotten, experienced a renaissance.

If not for Virtus's late performance decline, which caused them to lose the last seven games of the regular season, the difference between the BasketNews Power Ranking position and the club's final position in the standings would've been much bigger.

Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (Ranking 14th, Standings 8th)

To summarize the BasketNews Power Ranking, the voters did not believe in Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz, placing them only as high as 7th and as low as 16th. The assessment was correct at the start of the season when the Basques began the year with just one win in five games.

Then, head coach Joan Penarroya was let go, and Dusko Ivanovic, who was let go from Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade, returned to the club to coach Baskonia for the fourth time in his career.

Ivanovic's Baskonia won seven of their following eight games and established themselves as one of the best offensive teams in the league. Markus Howard, meanwhile, became arguably the most prolific pure shooter/scorer in the entire tournament, scoring at least 30 points five times during the EuroLeague season.

While the end of the regular season was tougher, Baskonia managed to win the last two games against Real Madrid and Virtus to capture the crucial 8th spot in the play-in tournament.

Worst Misses

Three teams performed worse by more than two ranking spots. First, Anadolu Efes Istanbul were seen as the last playoff participant, predicted to finish the season in 6th place.

After changing the head coach from Erdem Can to Tomislav Mijatovic, the Turkish team went on an impressive 8-2 winning run. Efes ultimately finished the season 9th and will host the first play-in game in the Sinan Erdem Arena.

To cap things off, Efes beat Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade in the last round of the regular season by a whopping 45-point margin, setting the Serbian club's franchise record for the biggest EuroLeague loss.

Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade (Ranking 11th, Standings 16th)

The 45-point loss against Efes almost perfectly illustrated the season for Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade - a lot of expectations and a lackluster result.

Before the season began, Crvena Zvezda's Nemanja Nedovic proclaimed this roster to be the best in the club's history. Well, that wasn't a correct statement judging by the final position in the standings, to say the least.

Crvena Zvezda parted ways with head coach Dusko Ivanovic just four games into the EuroLeague season. While Ioannis Sfairopoulos, who replaced Ivanovic, ultimately had a better record than the Serbian specialist, Crvena Zvezda's performance was underwhelming compared to the hype the club received before the season.

Unsatisfied with the performance, Crvena Zvezda shipped off Shabazz Napier, who was supposed to be the centerpiece of the club's offense, to Milan. 37-year-old Milos Teodosic ultimately became the most important player on the team, a suboptimal position to be in, and he didn't manage to stay healthy.

Joel Bolomboy and Yago dos Santos are arguably the only two brighter spots on the roster. At least their eternal rivals, Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade, didn't make it to the play-in tournament either.

EA7 Emporio Armani Milan (Ranking 8th, Standings 12th)

Shabazz Napier was part of the problematic Crvena Zvezda's season. He transferred to EA7 Emporio Armani Milan in the middle of the season and became part of another similar story.

Milan brought in Nikola Mirotic, one of the best players in the entire league, during the offseason. That addition alone improved the team's standing in the Power Ranking to as high as 1st place.

However, the organization was mired in controversy when head coach Ettore Messina gave some questionable comments in the middle of the season. Milan possessed a tremendous amount of talent but didn't manage to make it work.

Although the team had a chance to get to the play-in tournament until the very last round of the regular season, the expectation was much higher both among the fans and in the BasketNews Power Ranking.

With Messina holding the position of both a head coach and a general manager, the upcoming offseason is going to be very interesting after not making it to the EuroLeague playoffs for two years in a row.

Full ranking vs. Standing comparison

Team Power Ranking Position Final Standings Position Difference Virtus Segafredo Bologna 16 10 +6 Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 14 8 +6 Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens 4 2 +2 Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv 9 7 +2 Valencia Basket 15 13 +2 FC Barcelona 5 4 +1 Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul 7 6 +1 Real Madrid 1 1 - LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne 17 17 - ALBA Berlin 18 18 - AS Monaco 2 3 -1 Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade 10 11 -1 Olympiacos Piraeus 3 5 -2 Zalgiris Kaunas 12 14 -2 FC Bayern Munich 13 15 -2 Anadolu Efes Istanbul 6 9 -3 EA7 Emporio Armani Milan 8 12 -4 Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade 11 16 -5 Subscribe to BN+ and get access to exclusive content.