LaMelo Ball's next evolution might include more time in the midrange

LaMelo Ball is 22 years old, hasimproved his scoring average in each of his three NBA seasons,launches (and makes) 30-footers at a higher rate than most otherplayers, throws passes that nearly shatter the simulation we existin and already has an All-Star appearance under hisbelt.

So why does most of the NBAworld agree that he’s still a borderline star, and not yet thefull-fledged franchise cornerstone he’s clearly capable ofbeing?

In one word (a curse to some) itall comes down to Ball’s efficiency. He’s never produced highlyefficient buckets like the upper-echelon point guards – DamianLillard, Steph Curry and recently Shai Gilgeous-Alexander –consistently do. Rather, Ball’s efficiency has been middling (a54.7 career True Shooting percentage isn’t exactly alarming, but itdoesn’t satiate either.)

Ball has actually been a goodthree-point shooter his whole career (37.7% on 7.5 attempts) andnearly 50% of his shots over the past two seasons have been fromdeep,but the shooting inefficienciesstart to become apparent as he gets closer to the hoop, buckingconventional wisdom that tells you the closer you get to a basket,the easier scoring should become. But there are large men standing in there, so maybe that hassomething to do with it. I don’t know; I just writewords.

Anyway… according to CleaningThe Glass, Ball has shot 53%, 54%, and 54% at the rim (within fourfeet) in his first three seasons, respectively. That’s hoveringaround the 25th percentile of all point guards, not where you’dexpect – or hope – a player of his size and craftiness tobe.

Being a bad rim finisher, on itsown, is not a flaw that will nullify a player’s potential to be anelite scorer – just look at Trae Young, who has been a mediocre rimfinisher most of his career, but compensates with an incrediblefloater. The problem for Ball is that he’s more likely to attempt ashot at the rim than he is to attempt anything from the midrange,even though he’s shown some proficiency in the midrangearea:

Even more LaMelo Ball: makes Chris Duartedisappear with this quick spin + the iso finish and touch to get itover Turner at the rim, again pic.twitter.com/pOv2d6c80U

— Brian Geisinger (@bgeis_bird) December 30, 2021

In his first two seasons, Ballwas in the 61st and 56th percentile for all midrange shots amongpoint guards, according to Cleaning The Glass. (His midrangenumbers dropped pretty drastically across the board last year, butthat can mostly be blamed on three ankle sprains that limited himto 36 games).

In the “short mid,” which isfrom four-to-14 feet, Ball was right in the middle of the pack(55th percentile as a rookie and 52nd percentile as a sophomore).From the “long mid,” he’s been even better, shooting 45-of-111,good for the 62nd percentile of all point guards his sophomoreseason. None of those numbers are jaw-dropping, but they are farbetter than his numbers at the rim.

But despite the solid numbersfrom the midrange, Ball was only in the 20th, 36th and 20thpercentile, respectively, in midrange attempts among point guards his first three years.Essentially, he’s good in the midrange, but doesn’t shoot fromthere often.

He should shoot theremore often. At 6-foot-7, Ball possesses a mix of size, touch andcreativity that very few other players do, and the deep floaters,runners and funky fadeaway midrange jumpers are all perfectexamples of that creativity.

Exhibit A:

LaMelo has absurd range on his floaterpic.twitter.com/q2yiibCl7h

— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) August 11, 2023

Exhibit B:

LaMelo's dexterity is elite. The ability totransition from dribble to floater with one hand the entire waywhile his other hand fends off Claxton requires tremendous skill.pic.twitter.com/Hnm8XAAi6J

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) October 25, 2021

So, the key to Ball makinganother leap as a scorer could rely on him keeping his rim attemptsabout level with his rim attempts from last season (48thpercentile, about four attempts per game) while increasing themidrange attempts to career-high levels. He doesn’t need to beleading the league in midrange shots per game, but getting up toaround the 65th percentile of midrange attempts among point guardscould do wonders for his efficiency – assuming the actual shootingpercentages stay the same with higher volume.

Ball shouldn’tcompletelyeliminate his rim attempts isbecause 1) he should keepworking to improve skills that he struggles with, obviously, and 2)Ball driving consistently does still yield positive results a lot of thetime. Last season, Ball was 10th in the NBA in assistson drives, according to NBA.com.(Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Tyrese Haliburton, Darius Garland andYoung are some of the namesin front of him on the list).

Driving to the rim with thethreat of a pass is an area Ball excels in, and if there’s nochance that he’ll take adrive all the way to the rim and attempt a shot, then defenses haveone less outcome to worryabout when he has the ball. Ball’s ability to draw defenses andthen find teammates on dropoff passes is always a treat towatch:

one of the man ways lamelo ball is unlikeany other passer is how he manipulates the ball, defenders justhave no idea where he is gonna pass when he dangles the ball infront of them pic.twitter.com/P4EIlRZ2tK

— ben (@bjpf_) February 25, 2023

LaMelo Ball driving creates goodthings, and he should continue to put pressure on thedefense by getting into the lane. But by decreasing thefrequency of actual rim attempts, and increasingthe frequency of his midrangeprowess – even including shots that are bad looks for most,like one-legged midrangerunners or floaters from the free-throw line – LaMelo can helphimself evolve from a volumescorer into a rounded, efficient scoring weapon.