NBA picks, best bets: Why Knicks vs. Pacers will buck a Game 7 trend, plus Nuggets vs. Timberwolves play - CBSSports.com

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Now that the 2024 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.

New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers

Every year, I write the same explainer on why you should always pick Game 7 Unders. Entering this postseason, the last 20 Game 7's had produced an average of 196.6 points. After six games, teams have generally solved all of their opponent's half-court actions and seen all of their adjustments. These games tend to be slogs defined by bad shooting, turnovers and timely free throws. And yet... I'm taking the over in Knicks-Pacers. Why? A few reasons. First of all, the total for Game 7 is a staggering eight points lower than the Game 6 total of 215.5. Vegas is over-adjusting. The Pacers aren't a typical offense. So much of what they create is based on pace that many of rules that govern your typical, slower Game 7's don't really apply. The Pacers have found no answer whatsoever for Jalen Brunson. Every game in this series has had at least one team reach 111 points. This line is just too low, and is being dragged down solely by the fact that this is a Game 7. The Pick: Over 207.5

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Now THIS is your standard Game 7 under. Both starting point guards are playing through injuries. Both teams are low-volume 3-point shooting groups, so the odds of either getting hot and running away with the game are minimal. Both teams are near the bottom of the league in pace, so this one will be slow. There are great defenders all over the court. Neither team is getting to the line all too often. Minnesota just held Denver to 70 points in Game 6. I hate to pay the Game 7 under premium, but this series has been a slugfest throughout. It's going to end with both offenses struggling to score, and the winner will come down to which star between Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards can make more tough shots. The Pick: Under 196.5