2022-23 NBA award front-runners Vol. 2: MVP, DPOY, ROY, more

We're ramping up for the final stretch of the NBA season!

We're nearly three-quarters of the way through, which seems likea good time to update where I am with each award race. With roughly20 games to go for just about everyone, there's still plenty oftime for things to shift in the standings and (fake) awardballots.

Much like the first edition, I'm going tofollow the ballot rules as closely as possible — top-five in MVP,top-three for Rookie of the Year, so on and so forth. For the teamawards, players have to be voted in at the positions they play themost, which really makes picking the All-NBA and All-Defensiveteams tougher than it has to be. In a perfect world, both teamswould be positionless; at the very least, they'd give us the samebackcourt/frontcourt designations as the All-Star teams.

That isn't the world we live in — at least not yet — so thosewon't be the rules I follow.

For those who aren't familiar with my award thought process, thenumber of games played matters to me. I generally set the bar at60% of games played for me to even give you thought; in a league astalented as this one, there has to be a way to limit the pool.That's an easy one for me, and I understand if you disagree withit. For the purposes of this article, that means a 37-game minimumto even qualify.

Also, you can insert the obligatory "I don't hate your favoriteplayer/team, I am simply higher on the player/team that I listed"message here.

Let's have some more fun.

All stats are for games played since Dec. 14, unlessotherwise noted.

Most ValuablePlayer

Previous order (through Dec.14):

Jayson TatumGiannis AntetokounmpoNikola JokicStephen CurryLuka Doncic

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

14 PTS, 11 REB, 10 ASTNikola Jokic became only the 6th player in NBA history to record100 career triple-doubles as the Nuggets won in Houston 🃏 pic.twitter.com/oqKZS8W5d8

— NBA (@NBA) March 1, 2023

Since the first check-in, Jokic has averaged 25.2 points, 12.8rebounds, 10.7 assists (3.7 turnovers) and 1.3 steals across a32-game sample. The Nuggets have gone 26-6 in that stretch, goodfor an 81.3% win percentage. They've outscored opponents by 396points in Jokic's minutes, which is the highest cumulativeplus-minus in the league.

His efficiency numbers have been off the chart: 73.0% on shotsat the rim, 60.0% on mid-range shots and a 48.2% clip from three onlow volume. His 71.2% True Shooting percentage is literally unheardof with a player of his workload.

Defensively, Jokic has mostly held his own. The Nuggets havebeen defending at *checks notes* a top-five rate — 111.4 defensiverating, excluding garbage time, per Cleaning The Glass — with Jokicon the floor.

It's worth repeating that Jokic isalimiteddefender, not a bad one. He's been amess in drop coverage. Get him up to the level or higher — wherehe's most comfortable utilizing his size, length and quick hands —and the Nuggets have been legitimately good. Some numbers fromSecond Spectrum since Dec. 14:

Jokic in drop coverage (269 picks): 1.04 PPP, 37th among 52players with at least 100 picks defendedJokic at the level (452 picks): 0.903 PPP, 12th among 55players with at least 100 picks defended

The box score checks out. Efficiency numbers check out. Theadvanced numbers — he leads the NBA in Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM),Estimated Wins (EW) and FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR metric amongothers — certainly check out. The record checks out, as his Nuggetslead the Western Conference by 5.5 games right now; they're alsoone game behind the Milwaukee Bucks for the league's bestrecord.

Nobody should declare the race over, but it's fair to dub Jokicas the front-runner.

Next Up: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid,Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic

I continue to flip-flop between Embiid and Giannis. As of today,I'll give Giannis a cat-whisker's edge. Embiid has a slight edge ingames played (29 to 26) during this stretch, and he's had aslightly better offensive season overall. Giannis has been a better(or at least, more consistent) defender and is on a wild offensiverun himself, and it's hard to argue against a 15-game winningstreak that has put the Bucks atop the NBA.

The work Giannis has done in a less-than-ideal context has beenremarkable. He's been without his best pick-and-roll partner inKhris Middleton for most of the season and hasn't always had JrueHoliday by his side. He's leaned more into his jumper, toless-than-stellar results. And still, teams just haven't been ableto stop him.

Giannis remains a battering ram at the rim; he's drawn shootingfouls on a preposterous 25.3% of his shot attempts during this run— and 24.6% overall this season, per Cleaning The Glass. Those arecareer-high marks for him. The playmaking, especially when drivingagainst the "wall," remains quality.

He's been a monster defensively, with teams converting roughly53% of their shots at the rim with Giannis nearby this season —seventh among 50 players defending at least four shots pergame at the rim.

Embiid's two-way dominance speaks for itself. He's averaging32.8 points on 63.9% True Shooting over his past 29 games. Thoughhis mid-range shooting has tailed off some from the beginning ofthe year, he remains a terror in the middle of the floor. And anydrop-off he's seen in mid-range efficiency has been balanced out byliving — and thriving — at the free-throw line. Dominating to thisdegree while having his (budding) star guards in and out of thelineup adds some style points.

What's also been fun is watching Embiid patrol the back line.He's had some tantalizing flashes playing higher up in ball-screencoverages and has blown stuff up. But on a more quiet note, he'sbeen directing traffic and making offenses uncomfortable just bybeing in the rightspot.

Tatum has continued to chug along, ranking fourth in minutes pergame (37.7) during this stretch. The box score has remained stellar— 30.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists (3.1 turnovers) and 1.0steals — while the Celtics are mere hours away from reclaiming thebest record in the league.

He's lost a little steam around the margins. Most of it isn'this fault; the Jokic/Embiid/Giannis triumvirate has simply beenthat good while not being drastically off the winningpace. Some of it ison Tatum. His pull-up tripleshaven't fallen at a high clip(28.3% on 5.1 attempts), putting his still-great overall efficiencybehind those ahead of him during this run. By effectivefield goal percentage and TS%:

Jokic: 67.0% eFG, 71.2% TSEmbiid: 55.3% eFG, 63.9% TSGiannis: 56.5% eFG, 60.5% TSTatum: 52.4% eFG, 59.4% TS

It also doesn't help that, in a race this close, Tatum seeminglywent from, "Keep an eye out for his All-Defense case," to, "Eh, weknow he's good when he ramps it up," based on some of his off-ballwork. Still, it's been a tremendous campaign for Tatum so far.

It feels odd having Doncic as a distant fifth, but only being agame out of Play-In Tournament territory — and having his defensiveeffort slip to the degree it has recently — puts him behind the 8Ball. Obviously, Doncic has been incredible offensively, holdingthe title as the only player that ranks in the top 10 in scoring(33.2, first) and assists (8.1, eighth) this season.