Chalk rules in women’s March Madness bracket picks

The women’s NCAA Tournament field is set and now the fun beginswith 68 teams vying for the national championship and cutting downthe nets in Dallas.

There’s a new format to March Madness, with two regionals inSeattle and Greenville, South Carolina, instead of the usual four.Here’s a look at what could happen over the next few weeks. Thisguidance will be 100% accurate — until the first round tips off onFriday.

CHALK RULES

A No. 1 seed has won the national championship the past 10tournaments and 14 of 15. The only time that didn’t happen was in2011 when coach Gary Blair led Texas A&M to the title as a No.2 seed. Since 2005, at least two of the No. 1s have made the FinalFour every year except for 2016. This year’s overwhelming bettingfavorite is top-ranked and defending national champion SouthCarolina, the only undefeated team in the tourney.

LACK OF MAJOR UPSETS

There is a feeling that parity continues to find its way intowomen’s basketball with 19 losses by top 10 teams in the AP Top 25poll to unranked schools. Still, it’s hard to pick against the topteams in the tournament as no 14 or 15 seed has ever won a game(the women’s tournament was the first to see a 16 seed upset a topseed when Harvard beat Stanford 71-67 in 1998). Two came close lastseason with Jackson State falling late to LSU and UT Arlingtonhanging tough with Iowa State.

BEWARE THE 12

No. 12 seeds have had success, just like in the men’s bracketthe last few seasons, beating some of the 5s. At least one 12 hasmade it out of the first round in four of the last fivetournaments, including two last season.

And now the picks:

GREENVILLE REGION 1

Analysis: South Carolina won’t have to leave the state to reachthe Final Four if it wins, playing its first two games at home andthen traveling 90 minutes to Greenville for the regional. TheGamecocks (32-0) have been tested this season and still found a wayto win every game. Dawn Staley’s squad is looking to be the 10thteam to finish a season unbeaten by winning a nationalchampionship. Second-seeded Maryland and No. 4 UCLA both playedSouth Carolina during the season, giving them familiarity ifthere’s a rematch.

Players to watch: Aliyah Boston, South Carolina; CheritaDaugherty, Southern Utah; Diamond Miller, Maryland; CharismaOsborne, UCLA.

Bracket Buster: Sixth-seed Creighton is the team most likely tospoil brackets. Last season as a 10-seed the team made the regionalfinal before falling to South Carolina. Host Notre Dame is missingstar Olivia Miles and the third-seeded Irish could fall to theBluejays.

First-round picks: South Carolina, South Florida, Oklahoma,UCLA, Creighton, Notre Dame, Arizona, Maryland.

Second-round picks: South Carolina, UCLA, Creighton,Maryland.

Regional semifinal picks: South Carolina, Maryland.

Regional champion pick: South Carolina.

GREENVILLE REGION 2

Analysis: Indiana has been the second-best team most of theseason behind South Carolina and earned the first No. 1 seed inschool history. Led by Mackenzie Holmes in the middle and adominant defense, the Hoosiers will be looking to reach their firstFinal Four. There’s a lot of star power in the region includingVillanova’s Maddy Siegrist, LSU’s Angel Reese and Utah’s AlissaPili.

Other players to watch: Leigha Brown, Michigan; Kaitlyn Chen,Princeton; Charlisse Leger-Walker, Washington State.

Bracket Buster: UNLV is one of three 30-win teams in thecountry, yet the Lady Rebels haven’t faced many teams as good asMichigan this year. Florida Gulf Coast knocked off Virginia Tech asa 12 seed last season and could do it again this time if they beatWashington State.

First-round picks: Indiana, Oklahoma State, Florida Gulf Coast,Villanova, Michigan, LSU, Princeton, Utah.

Second-round picks: Indiana, Villanova, Michigan, Utah.

Regional semifinal picks: Indiana, Utah.

Regional champion pick: Indiana.

SEATTLE REGION 3

Analysis: No one had a worse string of injuries than UConn thisseason and yet Geno Auriemma has the Huskies playing their bestbasketball heading into the tournament. They’ve made every FinalFour since 2008 and there’s no reason to think that streak can’tcontinue if star guard Azzi Fudd keeps getting healthier. VirginiaTech is the one seed and has had a stellar year behind ElizabethKitley.

Other players to watch: Ashley Joens, Iowa State; Myah Selland,South Dakota State; Jacy Sheldon, Ohio State.

Bracket Buster: No. 9 seed South Dakota State ran through theSummit League and also beat Louisville and Kansas State thisseason. The Jackrabbits have enough talent to put a scare into theHokies in the second round. No. 12 seed Toledo beat Michiganearlier this season and has won its last 16 games. Iowa State couldbe victim No. 17.

First-round picks: Virginia Tech, South Dakota State, IowaState, Tennessee, North Carolina, Ohio State, Baylor, UConn.

Second-round picks: Virginia Tech, Iowa State, North Carolina,UConn.

Regional semifinal picks: Virginia Tech, UConn..

Regional champion pick: UConn.

SEATTLE REGION 4

Analysis: Stanford is in its usual spot as a No. 1 seed but haslooked vulnerable this season, struggling on offense at times. Thesecond-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes have had no problem scoring and are oneof the hottest teams after winning the Big Ten Tournament behindstar Caitlin Clark. No. 4 Texas was picked in the preseason topfive before struggling with injuries and fitting transfers in. VicSchaefer has had a lot of success in March and this could beanother one of his great coaching jobs.

Other players to watch: Cameron Brink, Stanford; Rori Harmon,Texas; Ta’Niya Latson, Florida State; Hailey Van Lith,Louisville.

Bracket Buster: No. 11 seed Middle Tennessee has won 10 straightgames and had an early season victory over Louisville so Coloradoshould beware. Drake has been playing well lately, sweeping its wayto a Missouri Valley Conference Tournament title. Louisville hasbeen playing better lately, but needs to be sharp against the12th-seeded Bulldogs.

First-round picks: Stanford, Gonzaga, Louisville, Texas, MiddleTennessee, Duke, Florida State, Iowa.

Second-round picks: Stanford, Texas, Duke, Iowa.

Regional final picks: Stanford, Iowa.

Regional champion pick: Stanford.

THE FINAL FOUR

Analysis: There should be some familiarity in the Final Four,which will likely see three teams from last season’s nationalsemifinals returning. South Carolina will likely face Stanford in arematch of a November game that the Gamecocks won in overtime whileUConn will likely face Indiana.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

Pick: South Carolina and UConn will meet again and the Gamecockswill win back-to-back titles.

Analysis: The teams played in February and the Huskies gave theGamecocks one of their stiffest tests of the season. UConn didn’thave Fudd for that game (knee injury). Fudd is back, but she won’tbe enough for the Huskies to stop the Gamecocks from becoming onlythe fourth different school to win consecutive titles (USC, UConnand Tennessee).