3x3: surprises of EuroLeague playoffs and EuroCup format's fairness / News - Basketnews.com

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With one week of Turkish Airlines EuroLeague playoffs down and one (or two) to go, BasketNews journalists Uygar Karaca, Orazio Cauchi, and Giorgos Kyriakidis discuss the surprises of the first games, the series which is most likely to go 5 games and fairness of EuroCup format.

Here is our 3x3: three answers to each of the three questions.

What was the most surprising in the first week of the EuroLeague playoffs?

Uygar: I believe the biggest surprise was the declaration of surrender by Ettore Messina: "The series is over". I highly doubt that he is indeed thinking that way and I hardly believe that the series is over.

In my opinion, Milan's contention for the F4 after they took Efes for the playoffs was not overwhelming and it was very obvious that this was going to be a close series. That means home wins and losses are quite possible.

Yes, without Malcolm Delaney and (maybe also) Sergio Rodriguez, they are going to have grave problems in the position of point guard and the role of the primary ball handler.

Nicolo Melli's absence is quite damaging as he was bringing the team maturity and IQ level to very high levels. But every team can come up with their own solutions, look at Bayern. Their bright side is Shavon Shields getting into shape and rhythm, as we saw in the 2nd game of the series. This guy is hardly a quitter.

Are Efes bulletproof right now? Hardly. Vasilije Micic is still out of sync with Shane Larkin and the rest of the team. Their success is still highly dependent on the long mid-range and 3-point volume accuracy of the big players: Chris Singleton, Tibor Pleiss, and Adrien Moerman.

Because only if that outside shooting works, then the overload of the Micic-Larkin duo gets back to more reasonable levels in the offense and everything reshuffles to make Efes a more compact, balanced team in both offense and defense.

Orazio: Personally, I was really surprised by Bayern Munich's performance in Barcelona for Game 2. In my prediction of the series, I thought Bayern could have won a game in the series, but I believed that would have happened in Germany and not in Barcelona.

After how Game 1 ended, with Barcelona almost always in control, I didn't expect that type of reaction from Bayern in Game 2. From the beginning of the game, Bayern looked like a completely different team. They showed great defensive intensity, they shot incredibly well from three-point (48% at the end of the game) and they sucked the energy out of Palau Blaugrana.

Deshaun Thomas had an impressive turnaround performance. He had finished with zero points in Game 1 but in Game 2 he became completely unstoppable, scoring 25 points while also adding 7 rebounds and 2 assists. Thomas played in Barcelona for one season, he knows that environment and he loved the feeling of being the 'disruptor' of the night in Barcelona.

But considering the recent history of Bayern Munich, probably that shouldn't have been much of a surprise. Last season they forced Milan to a Game 5, giving them a really hard time to reach the Final Four. In Game 2 against Barcelona, they proved once again that, despite all the difficulties, they're not going down easy.

Giorgos: The most pleasant surprise was the way Bayern Munich played in Game 2. Before the playoff started, I thought they would be the weakest link among all Final Four contenders. Watching them deliver an offensive clinic in Madrid in Round 34 of the regular season didn't change the general impression because Real weren't going through a great moment at the time.

Bayern hadn't been a great team on the road this season, especially compared to last year, in addition to dealing with several COVID and injury-related issues. When Darrun Hilliard left the court in Game 1, my first thought was that it's all over for them.

But that wasn't the case. Bayern managed to silence the Palau Blaugrana, not only thanks to their outstanding outside shooting but because they controlled the rhythm, playing great low-post defense on Mirotic and only allowing Laprovittola and Calathes to pose a real threat. It was the Bavarians' first-ever road win, and also Deshaun Thomas's most memorable EuroLeague night.

All things considered, one could label it as his career-best performance. Although I'm very skeptical whether he and his team will be able to even approach the standards they set in that game, they were definitely a spectacle to behold in Game 2.

On the other end, I definitely expected more from Maccabi in Madrid. They were decent in Game 1 and simply awful two nights later. Judging from what has transpired in the past, Real Madrid's place in Belgrade is almost certain.

Which series is the most likely to extend to 5 games?

Uygar: I think this is going to be Maccabi-Real Madrid, no matter what happened in the first two games. Maccabi's home court aura is way more different than any other court and they did not lose there since January 2022, in almost 3 months.

The first game was a statistical anomaly as Real Madrid hit 16 of their 28 shots beyond the arc. Besides, there was Fabien Causeur’s best game in a while that managed to hold Maccabi at bay. Sometimes, when you lose that kind of games where you fought well until the very end but you lost anyway, that demoralizes the team and the next game can be a blowout.

Look at last season’s Bayern story after a last-second defeat against Milan (the second game finished with a relatively narrower difference, 11 points but it was a 20-point game in the first half).

But remember: blowout losses can be a good thing for the rest of the series. Bayern came back from 0-2 down last season, only to lose a flawless effort of Shavon Shields. Is Real Madrid giving the impression that they are going to close this series in Tel Aviv? I don't see that.

Orazio: Despite all the injuries suffered in this period, I still believe that the series between Milan and Anadolu Efes is the most likely to reach Game 5. Armani Exchange are facing a lot of difficulties, that's for sure.

Nicolo Melli and Malcolm Delaney are both out for the rest of the series, Sergio Rodriguez will travel with the team to Istanbul but it's still uncertain if he'll be able to play. Gigi Datome will try to give his contribution but he just came back from knee surgery so he cannot be at 100% of his condition.

But in Game 2 of the series, they proved that they're a very resilient team and that they have no intention of going down without a fight. Their defensive stability is something that's always present, even when several players are missing. In the first 2 games of the series, they kept Efes under 70 points. If they'll continue like that, they still have a chance.

Sure, Efes now have all the odds in favor. They'll play at home, they have a better physical condition and the atmosphere in Istanbul is going to be crazy. But to close the series in Turkey, Efes need to find their groove again offensively because so far in the series, only Larkin and Micic have played like themselves.

Moerman, Beaubois, Simon, and Bryant need to give more offensively, otherwise, this series is going to be a long one.

Giorgos: I would bet my money on the pair consisting of Olympiacos and Monaco. I would be surprised if Barcelona don't win both games in Munich now that they're with their back against the wall, if Efes don't make it 3-1 against injury-plagued Armani Milan and if Real Madrid don't leave Tel Aviv with at least one victory - especially considering how bad Maccabi played.

On the other hand, I feel like Olympiacos and Monaco have a long way to go. Not only did they split wins in the first two outings, but they also did it with considerable ease and poise. Olympiacos held the EuroLeague newcomers down to just 54 points in Game 1, while Monaco had an incredible night on the offensive end in the second game in Piraeus.

The team from the Principality chose to clog the paint, challenging certain Olympiacos players to shoot.

Tyler Dorsey, a player who can create his own shot but is also asked to make the right decisions, has been evidently out of shape lately. Sasha Vezenkov, guarded mostly by Will Thomas, one of the top defenders in his position in Europe, has been unable to find as many open looks as he would hope for, standing on the weak side.

Overall, Olympiacos went 8/27 from deep in Game 1 and 10/30 in Game 2. If they don't increase their shooting percentage, it will be tough for them to win at least once on the road.

Sasa Obradovic saw all of his players contribute in the first couple of games. Monaco are by no means the favorite of the series and their lack of fear is one of the main factors that can further push them to the Final Four. But Olympiacos know that the next two games will probably be those that this team will be mostly remembered for - especially if they lose.

Partizan and Joventut were ousted in the first round of the EuroCup playoffs. Is it good or bad for the competition?

Uygar: Hardly. A competition is a competition and if it is consistent in its earlier premises (that everybody knows the rules and there will be a single-game elimination format), it is all ok.

Eurocup tweaked its playoff format quite frequently over the years and what we saw is that for many years, there were such surprises, regardless of the format. Virtus Bologna had the home-court advantage in the best-of-three series but they could not survive the second game.

Everybody had in their mind to see Virtus playing against Joventut in the quarters and Partizan make it to the final, but obviously, neither Partizan nor Joventut had required composure to make it all the way, as simple as that. Having Zeljko over there and a fledging renovation project gets halted on the way for Euroleague does not change anything.

I prefer a fighting team that wins all their playoff games to make it to the final, instead of two "big" clubs of the competition despite not being good enough. Eurocup is a competition that built its brand -if any- on this kind of unexpected turns anyway, not to names of the clubs.

Orazio: The fact that both Joventut Badalona and Partizan Belgrade, two of the main contenders for the EuroCup title, are already out of the competition is not exactly a surprise.

The format of the EuroCup playoffs was implemented to give more home games to the teams during the group stage but with a single-game playoff, we knew from the start that there were going to be some surprises. Inevitably, teams like Partizan Belgrade, Virtus Bologna, Valencia, and Badalona have way more to lose in a single game.

They spent more money to build their rosters and one bad night can erase all their efforts like it's already happened to Partizan and Badalona. The difference in quality between two teams is definitely reduced in a single game compared to a playoff series. With this type of playoffs format, there's simply no room for mistakes. One bad game and you're out.

If we're talking about the unpredictability of the competition, this format is definitely something that leaves more room for surprises and upsets. But if the final goal is to have the most competitive teams reaching the final and getting a spot for the EuroLeague, seeing teams like Partizan and Joventut getting out so early, it's not something that's gonna help the movement in the long term.

Giorgos: I don't think it's necessarily bad short-term, but it certainly can affect the competition long-term. The general orientation of the EuroLeague and the premise upon which it has been based precludes what Jordi Bertomeu had once referred to as "sporting accidents." By that, the Catalan CEO meant teams who go far in the competition despite lacking tradition, financial resources, brand name, a sizeable fanbase, big sponsors etc.

Such "accidents" are, in my eyes, more than welcome and constitute the true essence of sports. But rendering teams like Partizan or Joventut Badalona vulnerable to one-night wonders won't increase EuroCup's popularity among sports fans.

If EuroLeague Basketball's main purpose was to encourage investment by big spenders, the current EuroCup format works in the exact opposite direction. Only a fool would risk his money, knowing that his team could lose everything because they had a bad night.

In contrast to the EuroLeague Final Four - where the regular-season winners have still to win the trophy, anyway- the EuroCup throws teams into an 18-game group phase, before proceeding with another three rounds until the final game.

Partizan - or any other big EuroCup club- might as well receive a wild card next season if Russian teams are left out. But if the EuroCup wants to retain its fame and reputation as the second-best European club competition, it should at least make sure that everything isn't decided in one game only.

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