Seeing the future: Estimating value of NBA draft picks in trades / News - Basketnews.com

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The NBA Draft is an event where the dreams of 60 young men become true overnight. It's also a night when the fortunes of NBA franchises change. For better or worse. But over the last decade, it has become something much more significant.

The draft is a means to build a team (don't forget to trust the process), while draft picks have become valuable assets. And while there's a lot of science behind evaluating young players and trying to project their future potential, assessing and placing particular value on a draft pick is a whole other ballgame.

Teams constantly include future draft picks in trades. OK, if the draft pick is in the upcoming draft. It means we kind of know what players will be available and who's coming out of college.

We also can go out and see them play in person and do our scouting reports. But imagine a trade in which you send a player, and in return, you get a draft pick that will happen three years from now.

Or take, for example, a trade proposed by Bleacher Report in the upcoming draft:

Orlando Magic receive:No. 2 pick, No. 12 pick, Washington's 2023 second-round pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder receive: No. 1 pick.

Is it a good deal? Should Orlando take it? There is a really high probability it won't happen, but that's beside the point. The question is how to place a tangible value on draft picks.

Here we can take a page from the Analytics book by Stephen Shea and Christopher Baker. They have developed a statistical category that objectively answers an age-old question: is he a good basketball player?

According to their metric (EOP+), the ten best (from 1977 to 2010) NBA players are:

Place Player EOP+ Score 1. LeBron James 28.92 2. Michael Jordan 26.73 3. Shaquille O'Neal 25.78 4. Chris Paul 25.38 5. Dwyane Wade 25.35 6. Magic Johnson 24.88 7. Allen Iverson 24.38 8. Kobe Bryant 23.35 9. Charles Barkley 23.04 10. Karl Malone 22.9

Even if we aren't fans of every player on this list, we can say it's a pretty accurate one.

So by using the same metric, they've looked into 36 years of NBA Draft history and calculated the career performances of every pick. And here's a look at all lottery picks:

1st pick - 16.45 8th pick - 9.67 2nd pick- 12.21 9th pick - 10.09 3rd pick- 13.76 10th pick - 10.33 4th pick - 12.52 11th pick - 8.33 5th pick - 12.27 12th pick - 7.73 6th pick - 9.27 13th pick - 8.79 7th pick- 11.56 14th pick - 8.08

Evidently, the No. 1 pick is significantly better than the rest, while there's not much difference between the 2nd and the 5th picks.

So let's go back to that Bleacher Report trade mentioned earlier. No. 2 and 12 picks may produce quality players, but they're nowhere near the star potential that comes with the 1st pick. And we do not even need to talk about the second round.

Further, Shea and Baker calculated the probability of landing a star player with each pick. What is a star player? A player whose career EOP+ is above 15. An example? Manu Ginobili (15.02).

So what are the chances of drafting Ginobili with each pick?

1st pick - 59% 8th pick - 6% 2nd pick - 26% 9th pick- 18% 3rd pick - 38% 10th pick - 15% 4th pick - 24% 11th pick- 12% 5th pick - 32% 12th pick - 3% 6th pick - 9% 13th pick - 6% 7th pick - 24% 14th pick - 6%

As you can see, there's almost a 60 percent chance to land a star player with the No. 1 pick. After that, the likelihood of such a scenario decreases drastically.

Again, let's discuss the proposed Orlando-Oklahoma City trade in a new light. We can see that even with twice as many selections, there are 50 percent fewer chances of landing a star. Ginobili.

As mentioned earlier, that particular trade is probably not going to happen. But there will be other trades.

During this year's draft, in the offseason, and at the next trade deadline. Some of them will definitely include draft picks, and the cycle of wondering 'what if' will continue. Only this time, it could hopefully be a bit more enlightened.

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