How Dejan Radonjic's timeouts can decide Panathinaikos' EuroLeague future / News - Basketnews.com

The effectiveness of Panathinaikos' timeouts and their contribution to the team's wins has been greatly overlooked. BasketNews sheds some light on how Dejan Radonjic's use of timeouts can change the Greens' course this season.

Credit: Vangelis Stolis Credit Vangelis Stolis

No one could argue that timeouts are an important part of basketball. They allow coaches to temporarily stop the game and the shot clock from ticking. This gives teams extra time to strategize, make substitutions, or rest players.

2-pointers this season

48%19,1Points made:19,1Accuracy:48,1%Place in standings:10Record max:27Record min:12Most made 2FGs:Dwayne BaconTeamEuroLeagueStatisticsSchedule

They can also facilitate teams' efforts to win games, especially those decided at crunch time. Regardless of whether someone thinks it's the players who decide the outcome, in Europe, coaches have always had the mandate to dictate plays and strategies.

According to FIBA rules, each team can use two timeouts in the first half and three during the second half. Each team is limited to two timeouts with 2:00 or less remaining in the 4th quarter. Teams are given only one timeout per overtime, and the timeouts do not add up in case more than one overtime is played.

That's whyPanathinaikos Athens present an interesting case for study. The Greek side is the EuroLeague team with the most overtime games so far (3) in the competition.

With a few exceptions (Valencia Basket, AS Monaco), they're also one of the teams that have seen at least half of their contests go down to the wire. PAO have won or lost seven of their 14 games with three points or less, not to mention their last defeat by FC Barcelona (68-74) in an outing decided in the closing three minutes.

In a recent BasketNews+ article, accompanied by a comprehensive video analysis, Augustas Suliauskas explained how Panathinaikos had shown some progress in their game compared to their sloppy 2-6 EuroLeague start.

The presence of key players, such as Nate Wolters and -most importantly-Dwayne Bacon, has changed the picture, increasing the team's overall potential and playoff chances.

However, a closer look at timeouts shows that game stoppage and the coach's intervention can make a big difference between winning and losing. Dejan Radonjic is a tactician who extensively uses his timeouts, especially whenever PAO manage to keep their chances of winning intact.

Panathinaikos Athens / Schedule

Valencia Basket Panathinaikos Athens94-91 FC Barcelona Panathinaikos Athens74-68 Anadolu Efes Istanbul Panathinaikos AthensFri17:30

Over the Greens' 14 games (seven held at OAKA and as many on the road), the Greeks have called 60 timeouts (4.3 per contest). 21 of those timeouts (35%) have been successful, which means that PAO players managed to score at least one point off the possession that directly followed the game stoppage.

Overall, Panathinaikos scored 44 points off Radonjic's timeouts (an average of 0.73 points off each ATO play).

By comparison, Panathinaikos' opponents saw 19 of their 44 timeouts (43.2%) materialize into a total of 42 points (0.95 points per ATO possession).

If one delves into more detail, an interesting fact emerges. In the six games PAO have won until now, Radonjic has a success rate of 14/23 (60.9%), while his team has produced 30 points (1.3 per ATO possession).

These percentages shrink when compared to the figures emerging from PAO's losses. Over those eight games, Radonjic has tried to revive his squad 37 times (4.6 per contest - very close to the maximum number of timeouts allowed). However, only seven of those attempts were successful (18.9%).

What's even worse is that the team got just 14 points overall (an average of 0.38) after timeouts.

In other words, Panathinaikos' timeouts are at least three times (60.9%-18.9%) more efficient (in terms of their success rate) and more productive (1.3-0.38) in terms of points scored and wins, as opposed to losses.

If we only consider PAO's last six games, that disparity becomes even more evident. During the team's four-game winning streak (Virtus, ASVEL, Zalgiris, Milan), Radonjic saw his players score 22 points overall and on 10 out of a total of 15 ATO occasions (1.46 points per possession).

When the Greeks visited Spain to face Valencia and Barcelona, the tables turned. PAO scored off one out of 10 timeouts - and that wasn't even a play that had a significant impact (a Nate Wolters' 2PT shot in the second quarter).

In Barcelona, Radonjic couldn't help his players take advantage of any of his five timeouts (0/5). That was the second time in the season when PAO didn't get a single point off their timeouts. The previous one was against ALBA Berlin. And guess what. Both contests were lost for the Greens.

On the other hand, Panathinaikos' game with the highest timeout conversion rate was against Zalgiris in Kaunas. Radonjic stopped the time four times, and his players made the most of them, scoring nine points, all until the third quarter.

This is what Panathinaikos' timeouts in wins and losses look like:

Opponent Timeouts called/converted Percentage Points scored Points per ATO Possession Crvena Zvezda (A) 3/5 (+1 to inbound the ball with 6'' left) 60% 6 1.2 Baskonia (H) 1/3 33.3% 2 0.67 Virtus Bologna (H) 3/5 60% 8 1.6 ASVEL (H) 2/3 66.7% 3 1.0 Zalgiris (A) 4/4 100% 9 2.25 Olimpia Milano (H) 1/3 33.3% 2 0.67 TOTALS 14/23 60.9% 30 1.3

Another common pattern is that PAO need at least one 'successful' timeout per game to stand some chance of winning.

Moreover, whenever they get more than 0.67 points per possession after a timeout called by Radonjic, they end up on the winning side.

This is how PAO's timeouts have fared in their lost games:

OPPONENT Timeouts called/converted Percentage Points scored Points per ATO Possession Real Madrid (H) 2/5 40% 3 0.6 ALBA Berlin (A) 0/5 0% 0 0 AS Monaco (H) 1/5 20% 3 0.6 Maccabi (A) 1/5 20% 2 0.4 Partizan (H) 1/4 25% 2 0.5 Fenerbahce (A) 1/3 33.3% 2 0.67 Valencia (A) 1/5 20% 2 0.4 FC Barcelona (A) 0/5 0% 0 0 TOTALS 7/37 18.9% 14 0.38

Whereas in wins, points per possession never drop under 0.67, in losses, they never exceed that limit.

In sharp contrast to the Greens, their opponents scored the same number of points (21) after the same number of timeouts (22) in the eight games won as in the six games lost.

So, no real difference here, even though conceding almost one point per possession after an opponent's timeout isn't the definition of a good defensive reaction.

When it comes to how the 'wasted' timeouts ended up, PAO players turned the ball over 10 times overall, but - as one would expect- only once in the outings Radonjic's team won. The other cases included missed free throws and field goals.

But who makes the most ATO plays?

Well, Dwayne Bacon would be the obvious answer, but the American swingman only ties for second place behind Mateusz Ponitka.

The Polish guard/forward had a very high usage in after-timeout situations before Bacon was signed (in the first five games of the season), and that's mainly why he has been entrusted with 10 possessions. He also scored 11 points which isn't a bad number at all.

By comparison, Paris Lee has recorded 10 points off eight possessions (an average of 1.25). Still, Bacon has only converted one of his nine chances (two points) while also counting seven missed shot attempts and one turnover.

It's somehow ironic that the man credited with being PAO's game-changer in the season is also the one who has failed greatly to capitalize on his coach's timeouts. Or, if someone flips the equation, Dejan Radonjic hasn't been able to place Bacon within a defined set of plays and special situations.

Yet, Bacon was the one who made one of the Greens' most important baskets after a timeout by Radonjic.

With less than a minute left in overtime and Virtus up 83-80, the former NBA player drew the contact from Iffe Lundberg and scored a tough layup that tied the game.

Whether the Montenegrin coach will find a way to make the most of Bacon's talents and guide Panathinaikos through a very demanding EuroLeague regular season remains to be seen.

Just like their star player takes more shots than anyone else, Radonjic is keen on calling many timeouts, albeit not in the first quarter - despite Panathinaikos being the team struggling the most in the minutes following the first tip-off.

And just as Bacon is still striving for efficiency (especially in his 3-point shooting), Radonjic can hope that he'll pull off a series of effective timeouts, as he did during PAO's four-game comeback.

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