How does the NBA draft lottery work? Which teams have the best odds?

The NBA draftlottery has offered teams a quick path from bad to good for nearlyfour decades. The stakes this year are unusuallyhighwithFrench phenom Victor Wembanyamathe top prospect.

The lotteryformat has undergone a few changes since the New York Knicks wonthe first one in 1985, when there were seven teams.

There aretwice as many lottery teams now, all hoping, like the Knicks didwhen they drafted Patrick Ewing, to have luck strike at the righttime and land the player who can turn around a franchise.

The DetroitPistons, Houston Rockets and Spurs all have a 14% chance of gettinghim, but there will be 14 teams at the McCormick Place ConventionCenter that have hopes.

WHEN IS THENBA DRAFT LOTTERY?

The leaguewill hold this year’s lottery Tuesday night in Chicago, with thewinner getting the No. 1 pick and the chance to draft VictorWembanyama. He is considered the best prospect in years — perhapssince LeBron James went No. 1 20 years ago. The lottery telecastbegins at 8 p.m. EST on ESPN and during the televised portion,Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum opens envelopes that reveal thedraft order. Neither he nor any of the representatives on stagewill know the results until then.

WILLWEMBANYAMA BE AT THE LOTTERY?

The mostcoveted prospect in this year’s draft will not bethere.Wembanyamaplays his last regular-season game for his pro team inFranceon Tuesday, a few hours before the lottery.

All the teamsthat missed the postseason are in the Wembanyama Sweepstakes. Inaddition to Houston, Detroit, and San Antonio, the list includesCharlotte, Portland, Orlando, Indiana, Washington, Utah, Dallas,Chicago, Oklahoma City, Toronto and New Orleans.

WHAT ABOUTTHOSE PING-PONG BALLS?

Fourteenping-pong balls numbered 1 to 14 are placed in a machine and theteams are assigned various four-number combinations. The balls aremixed for 20 seconds before the first one is drawn. The remainingballs are mixed again before another is drawn, and that happenstwice more until four have been removed.

The team withthat combination of numbers gets the No. 1 pick. The balls are thenreturned to the machine and the process is repeated for the Nos.2-4 picks.

Teams haverepresentatives in the lottery room where the actual drawing takesplace and another on the podium for the televised announcement.Representatives in the lottery room can observe the process butcan’t the results. Everyone in the room has to turn over their cellphones and any other forms of communication when they enter.

WHY DOESN’TTHE WORST TEAM HAVE THE BEST ODDS TO WIN?

The shortanswer is to avoid any incentive for a team to finish last.

The worstteam did have the best odds until a few years ago with a 25% chanceof winning the No. 1 pick from 1994-2018. Now the teams with thethree worst records all have a 14% chance.

In the firstyears of the lottery from 1985-89, every team had the same odds.But the team with the worst record got the top pick only once andthat led the league to implementing a weighted system. The currentsystem also does not guarantee the worst teams get one of the topfour picks.

The Pistons,with the worst record, can have no worse than the No. 5 pick.Houston could end up sixth and San Antonio could fall as far as No.7. Picks No. 5-14 go in the inverse order of the teams’ finish inthe standings.

WHY DO THEROCKETS GET A BETTER SCENARIO THAN THE SPURS?

The NBA heldtiebreakers on April 17 to determine draft order for teams whofinished with the same records. Houston won that tiebreaker againstSan Antonio for the No. 2 spot after both finished 22-60. Maybe itwas a sign this is Houston’s year. The Rockets seem due for lotteryluck. Houston finished with the NBA’s worst record the previous twoseasons but fell to the No. 2 pick in 2021 and No. 3 in 2022.